Philip B commented on “Climate predictions “right only half the time””
Warwick you wrote:
Since the nighttime temperatures are rising three times as fast as the daytime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993), it implies a non-climatic signal in the nighttime data equal to about one half of the total warming. It implies the reported global warming of 0.6 C in the twentieth century should be reduced to about 0.3 C.
Have you seen the analyses of Australia temperature data at Gust Of Hot Air?
It shows that rising minimum temperatures are giving a false impression of rising nighttime temperatures, which are rising much less than the minimum, in a number cases there is no rise at all even though the minimum is rising.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that rising minimum temperatures reflect increased daytime warming and not increasing nighttime temperatures. As well as that increasing minimum and maximum temperatures are showing more heat gain to the system than there is.
After replying, I thought we needed a new thread
You had me searching for that quote Philip. It is on a page written by Dr Doug Hoyt, just above his references.
I agree with his thrust there as I have thought for years now that IPCC supportive scientists have attributed DTR closure to a greenhouse signal when in fact it is exactly a UHI signal – which they always manage to either ignore, trivialise or minimise in some way. Continue reading Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings→
“Virtually all GCMs result in the temperature of the troposphere at the
tropics increasing at about 1.3x that of the increase in the surface temperature. But all observations show that troposphere temp in the tropics is increasing at 1/2 to 1/3 that rate. Isn’t that proof that the greenhouse effect can not be causing an increase in surface temperature? How can something gaining less heat(trop.), heat something gaining more heat(surface)?
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The graphic below shows the differences between MSU and the Hadley Centre and GHCN/CAMS data.
These quotes are from Hansard for Question time in the WA Legislative Assembly, Thursday 17 May 2007. Note, Hansard is the Australian Parliamentary transcripts, or diary.
Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”
The Premier was answering a question which included the Agritech proposal to produce water for Perth from Wellington Dam, full text is reproduced below.
Data for this graphic is from the WA Govt WaterCorp website.
NOTE: Wellington Dam (just west of Collie in SW WA) overflowed in 2005 and near overflowed in 2006, despite the low rainfall that year. In most years WaterCorp releases several tens of GL of water from the foot of the dam to reduce salinity. This water now wasted and other available water would be the basis for Agritech’s proposal to supply water to Perth see: www.agritechsmartwater.com.au/
When the Australian Federal Govt in February this year announced the phasing out of incandescent light bulbs (ILB) in favour of Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL’s), I thought back to our ex Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser and his decision (~1980 ?) to make imperial measuring tapes / rulers ILLEGAL after introducing metric measurements. Well, Malcolm’s Govt had to back down on that one and to this day we are free to buy measuring devices marked both metric and imperial.
This news item from Prospect, Maine USA relates how a resident was faced with costs of $2000 to cleanup Mercury released from a broken CFL.
Current affairs TV in Australia is now running stories pointing out the obvious facts that switching to CFL use will lead to increasing Mercury in our landfills. There must be more important things for our Government to have its attention on than forcing us to use light bulbs that many do not want. Continue reading Electric light lunacy→
Link to 400 kb pdf file of David’s provocative and original updated (May 2007) paper which says we are coming into a weaker solar cycle and that a cooler climate is likely in decades ahead. David also explains that the Greenhouse effect due to carbon dioxide is miniscule, as does the 1998 paper by Sherwood Idso.
See, How MINISCULE is the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect ? an html version of a 1998 paper by Sherwood B Idso in Vol 10: 69-82 of Climate Research, “CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate”.
Olenek is a weather station in the Taymir Peninsular, Northern Siberia, 68.5 N, 112.4 E, altitude : 220 m. For map; www.warwickhughes.com/climate/taymgrid.gif
For a discussion of Tsurf trends in this region see; www.warwickhughes.com/climate/tamyr.htm
That’s the introduction and there is plenty of reading and points to explore there, however the purpose of this post is to expose a particularly gross inhomogeneity in Olenek data when compared to its neighbours. A fault not picked up in 15 to 20 years by the three major global climate groups. Continue reading The Great Olenek Mistake→
In his latest paper, CO2: The Greatest Scientific Scandal of Our Time
Dr Zbigniew Jaworowski highlights these four basic statements in the “Summary for Policymakers”:
1. Carbon dioxide, the most important anthropogenic emissions increased markedly as a result of human activities, and its atmospheric concentration of 379 ppmv (parts by volume) in 2005 by far exceeded the natural range of 180 to 300 ppmv over the last 650,000 years.
2. Since 1750, human activities warmed the climate.
3. The warmth of the last half-century is unusual, is the highest in at least the past 1,300 years, and is “very likely” caused by increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations;
4. Predictions are made that anthropogenic warming will continue for centuries, and between 2090 and 2099 the global average surface temperature will increase 1.1°C to 6.4°C. Various scare stories of global catastrophes are prophesied to
occur if man-made emissions are not curbed by drastic political decisions. The obvious beneficial effects of warming for man and all the biosphere are downplayed.
There is much comment in the Australian media about water shortages and prominent in this whole “debate” is the Wentworth Group, who are held out to be water experts and Professor Peter Cullen, of Canberra I think, often seems to speak for the Wentworth Group. I have just noticed a recent news item, copied below, where Prof Cullen commences by restating some popular mantras.
“Much of Australia seems to be drying and we are now facing real water scarcity for many of our cities and for rural areas. This crisis in The Murray-Darling Basin has been brought on by the climate shift and the serious drought..”.
The black trendline on this BoM rainfall history 1900-2006 for the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) shows the 1940’s were dryer than now and there is NO evidence in these data of a climate shift. It is perfectly clear that current dryer conditions are normal cyclic events to be expected and that planning of urban water infrastructure has failed to keep pace with population and consumption trends.
I agree with many of the other points in the article and fully expect that Wentworth Group people will dominate the “experts” group to be appointed under the Federal Governments new plans.
View the Ch4 (UK) TV documentary online thanks now to YouTube.
Watch, listen, do some thinking, make up your own mind.
The original link to Google video seems now dead, 15 Mar
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations
