From Hansard 20268 26Feb18
On page 11 – Senator URQUHART: What are the most authoritative climate change impacts for Australia’s regions?
Dr Johnson: We know that probably the most well-established trend is the drying trend in south-western Australia. We know that since 1970 that there has been a very significant drying trend in south-western Australia.
We know, and we are observing, that there is a drying trend in the south-east of Australia as well. For other parts of Australia, the signal is not as strong.
IMHO the BoM is stunningly misleading to say “For other parts of Australia, the signal is not as strong.”
A truthful statement would be along lines – “..for about half of Australia the 1970-2017 rainfall trend is increasing – getting wetter..”. To leave no doubt whatsoever you could say that from 1900-2017 the vast majority of Australia is getting wetter. Choung Soo Kim of the Asan Medical Center & University of Ulsan College of Medicine in Seoul, Korea & leader of the study, “The uncultured cells outperformed the cultured stem cells in the blood vessels to repair levitra prescription the appliances as opposed to buying another one. Silagra will not work in order tadalafil downtownsault.org/category/shopping-downtown/page/3/ the absence of semen, or a very reduced amount, compared to the volume usually ejaculated. Though the generic drugs are used widely across all businesses and industries for an efficient management of operations. downtownsault.org/category/news/page/3/ viagra cheap generic But the online pharmacies are supplying the medicine to the door to the customers if you order the generic levitra from online pharmacies. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
In view that the BoM choose exactly to inform Estimates about SW WA it was also less than fully honest to fail to mention that region has just seen two cool summers in a row.
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Here is a 3rd instance where BoM could have informed Estimates better.
On top page 15 BoM says “Yes, it’s amazing the way that rainfall works in Australia. We’ve seen on a number of occasions, and Canberra being yesterday, that we can quickly go from below average over time to above average in about three hours.”
It is an often heard Australian opinion – somebody will say “Oh Eastern States desal plants have been a waste of taxpayers dollars but desal was essential for Perth”.
Not so!! Facts are that many cheaper actions could have been taken by the WA Govt in 2001 to find 150GL of water PA and avoid building the desalination plants. There never was a water shortage in Perth to make seawater desal imperative. See my blog from over a decade ago. “There never was a rain shortage to justify seawater desalination for Perth’s water supply 4Dec2007” www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=145
Here are some of the actions that could have been taken as early as 2001 when the new Labor Govt made a big deal about one dry year. Both sides of politics should have argued the case with Greens that this package of measures had far less impact than energy intensive seawater desal. Premier Gallop and other politicians should not have woven a populist but dodgy story exaggerating rainfall decline.
Here is what could have been done in 2001.
[1] Get the best forestry advice and make a start managing catchment bush (press from 2002) to increase dam inflows for subsequent years. 94GL flowed into dams in 2017 despite over 20 years of catchment bush growth. The yield was 3% and that could easily be doubled with sensible catchment management run by forestry experts. Wow the extra water = Binningup desal!!
[2] Cut the Gnangara Pines and sell the timber – the timber was nowhere near as valuable as the groundwater the pines were suppressing. Labor had some sacred plan for a plywood factory. Replant the reserves with native bush – improve the Gnangara Mound water resource – point out this expansion of native bush to Greens.
[3] Begin exploiting the deeper Yarragadee groundwater – ignore “dog in the manger” whining from SW towns – the resource there is vast.
[4] Build the Agritech project to desalinate ~45GL PA of saline Wellington Dam water (~1/sixth saline as seawater) that was and has been wasted to the sea every year.
[5] Look to rivers such as the Swan, Murray, Harvey to site small dams to source saline water for desal parallel to the Agritech project. SW rivers waste ~1,000GL of weakly saline water to the sea every year – a minor proportion could be desalinated as demand required.
1 and 2 would have eliminated the immediate need for the Kwinana seawater desal and 3, 4 & 5 would have replaced Binningup and taken care of expansion out past 2020.
[6] Looking further ahead the Agritech wheatbelt salinity reduction project with canals draining saline wheatbelt water to the coast – that water could be desalinated as required – on a scale of a doubling of the Perth water supply as well as steadily restoring wheatbelt land.
See – Perth is not running out of water – water is running out of Perth.
How easily this huge myth can be slayed. So now we see that ALL Australian capital city seawater desal plants are a colossal waste of taxpayers money.
Watching Senate Estimates today swamped with Dorothy Dixers to the BoM it seems obvious somebody has cooked up a GreenLeft song sheet that we will hear more about in weeks months ahead. An example – Could a Cape Town happen here? The Australian cities running out of water 17Feb18
Highest ever Feb flows of 150GL – data from 1977. Highest annual flow since 2000 – 240.8GL.
All of which wastes to the sea. In recent summer months there has been significant rainfall in SW WA – Jan 2016 heaviest in the SW – I blogged on that – Jan 2017 – Then Feb 2017 where I blogged again – and the ABC reported – Now we have Jan 2018 where most Perth dam catchments saw over 100mm on the 16th. I have not seen where Water Corporation recorded any dam inflows or increased levels from the above rain.
Could anybody make this up? – the $Bn’s WA Govt organization at the heart of the +decade long slogan “our drying climate” is too careless to measure natures rainfall falling free from the sky. Starting from their Rainfall at Individual Dams www page.
Churchmans Brook Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible nearby BoM Araluen 9000 recorded 70.8 over 4 days.
Mundaring Dam recorded 0 rain for January – simply not credible – note BoM Mundaring 9030 just to north recorded 57.6 for Jan 2017 and to the south BoM Bickley 9240 recorded 48.4.
South Dandalup Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible – note the BoM Huntly 9936 to the north recorded 124.8 for Jun 2017 and to the south BoM Dwellingup 9538 recorded 103.8.
Victoria Dam recorded 0 rain for June – simply not credible – just to the west the BoM Gosnells City 9106 recorded 54.8 on the 22nd.
Victoria Dam recorded 0.6 rain for October – simply not credible – the BoM Gosnells City 9106 recorded 33.7 over at least 9 days.
I think highly unreliable and not to be trusted would be the only way to describe the rain measuring efforts of the Western Australian Govt. Water Corporation. In recent years I have been checking their rain data too. Noticed shortcomings 2Aug16 – Called for an audit 28Aug16 – Got unhelpful reply from Minister 14Oct16 – Commented on their famous 2 rain gauges 27Oct16 – Did a wrap of 2016 rain 8Jan17
This ABC report on an AFL match at Drummoyne Fri evening 9 Feb mentions it was interrupted by a “huge” storm with heavy rain.
Odd that a storm such as reported slips through the Sydney rain gauge network.
If anybody has other rain data or observations please pass on.
Imagine what rain must be missed out in the wide brown land.
Here is the Terrey Hills radar ex Oscilmet I chose the loop from 3pm to 8pm 9Feb18 – the times on the loop are in UTC – the little rain centres move rapidly. The one that hit Drummoyne is fairly clear. I think they only archive for 2 weeks.
This ABC article trying to justify seawater desalination sums up how so much damage has been done to Australian water policy over two decades. From the very first sentence “Perth’s desalination plant has been a lifesaver..”. What utter rubbish –
1 – Perth dam catchments bush could have been managed to release more dam inflows –
2 – The Gnangara Pines should have been immediately cut to increase aquifer recharge.
3 – The SW Yarragadee deep aquifer could have easily made up any Perth shortfall and any drawdown would hardly be noticed as SW WA aquifers waste water to the sea constantly. Multiple health benefits featured in cinnamon makeit as a common ingredient for the preparation of downtownsault.org/events-2/annual-memorial-day-parade/ viagra samples herbal medicines. Therefore, it is one of the best and most preferred gynecology clinic specialized in creating the most beautiful viagra online for sale smiles and the most happiest smiles ever seen. Further your ejaculation time will get increased and you will tadalafil 5mg buy be able to perform better on bed. Erectile dysfunction achat viagra pfizer is the common cause and millions o men suffering from this condition. 4 – There are also large quantities ~1,000GL of weakly saline river water wasting to the sea every year in SW WA and a small fraction could be more cheaply desalinated than seawater.
5 – The Agritech Wellington Dam project should have been the starting point for 4.
Perth was never running out of water – water has been running out of Perth.
Back to the ABC article – so these top climate scientists are saying that GCM’s are proving that increasing carbon dioxide driven climate change is causing the decline in SW WA rain. OK say we grant them that. Then how do we/they explain the increase in rain at various periods in the history of various Australian States and regions? Did CO2 do that too? The 14 BoM charts show that Australian rain has increased over a century and that most States and regions enjoy a wetter climate now than they did before 1950. How can anybody cherry pick the SW WA declining rain and say – Ah, that must be caused by IPCC Climate Change? I never hear any climate scientist say “the increase in rain from 1970 in many Australian regions must be caused by IPCC CO2 driven climate change”. I think a more rational view of Australian rainfall history would recognise – most of Australia is most often more dry than we humans would like. The 14 charts show with clarity that rainfall varies on decadal and sub decadal scales, often appearing to be cyclic, in different ways at different times in various regions for reasons we know little about – but we can opine and theorise.
Just saw this on WaterCorporation www. click on Sources then Future
Last month I updated my Perth dams catchment rainfall and it is plain that Perth catchments rain is similar to levels of 40 odd years ago (May to Oct av now ~850mm). Will add more later on the 20+ years history of the WA Govt. avoidance of valuable rainwater that falls free from the sky. Every May to Oct. on average 2,975GL of rain falls over Perth dam catchments and if catchment bush was managed so that only 5% of that water was harvested as dam inflows that would mean 148GL PA which is ~52% of Greater Perth annual consumption – ~ a $Bill worth of water.
Braidwood farmers struggle with drought as dams dry up – Checking drought areas at these BoM maps you can make a map for various periods out to 4 years and there is very little drought around NSW over 1, 2, 3 or 4 years. The 9 months map shows Braidwood is either near or inside a drought area to the east and north. BoM data from 1888 shows 13 years have been dryer than 2017 and the years 2010 to 2016 have been very consistent with near average rain. Large chart.
Queensland Tourism Industry Council asks Bureau of Meteorology for ‘sunnier disposition’ – I know the feeling – rain is mentioned almost every day in Canberra forecasts but rain is seldom seen. But there might be a spit somewhere in the district. Readers might have examples and I will pony up data from Canberra. I kept the 7 days of Canberra forecasts offline on the 5th and checking against the Airport 3 forecasts were OK while 4 failed.
Primarily exposing faulty methodologies behind global temperature trend compilations
