I am amazed at the way the “authorities” have seized on the current La Nina phase of the SOI as the reason for the Victorian floods – the media repeat this as gospel truth.
This flies in the face of the crystal clear evidence from satellite images that the It offers extreme power to solve the impotence problem. In short, there is no doubt in saying that smoking and alcohol can ronaldgreenwaldmd.com/procedures/brain-procedures/shunts-for-hydrocephalus/ buy sildenafil no prescription lead to male impotency. People who are advised not take this drug include dizziness, mild headache, stomach upset and blushing of the order levitra online check that face. Both drugs use the same primary ingredient and therefore cheapest tadalafil 20mg have almost identical results. two rain events over western Victoria for the 12th and 14th of January 2001 originated as southward eruptions from the monsoon trough over northern Australia.
When starting the animation it restarts several times before running the full 93 images.
Remember rain is recorded at 9am each day for the previous 24hrs.

The Canberra Times has a front page article on 15 January 2011 – “Canberra should batten down the hatches” – and talks of “…predicting devastating storms and unrelenting rain in the capital for the next two months.” The ACT SES Commissioner Mark Crosweller said a long-range briefing provided by the Bureau of Meteorology in November had so far proven eerily accurate and the same forecast predicted that Canberra would be battered in late January and February.
OK – so better bring the boat back from the coast.
However, I see on the 29 December the BoM was quoted in a Canberra Times article – “Emergency services prepares for heat” – saying that, “We should see a lot more days around the 30 degree mark around the next two months…”. OK – and I thought it was called Summer !!
As it turned out there were, as predicted, four days 30 and over at Canberra Airport following the 29th Dec. But what the BoM did not predict was that the next 12 days ranged between 20-28 and averaged 24.25 degrees. The 15th & 16th Jan were over 30 again.

We all know it is common in Canberra summer for afternoon storms to capriciously dump a bit of rain here and there.
But “…devastating storms and unrelenting rain…” – does not sound to me to be compatible with – “…a lot more days around the 30 degree mark around the next two months…” – but we shall see what summer brings – and there may be surprises as usual.
I note at the ACT Emergency Services Agency the “..eerily accurate…forecast…” in November 2010 – plus multi times a day local forecasts by the BoM – just up the road – did not help avoid rain damage to their new HQ on 3 December.
Golly – weather is tough to predict.
That Canberra institution – the RiotACT blog also comments on the Canberra Times article in – “More flooding foreseen for the Canberra region”.
What has been the truth about Canberra weather half way through this summer ? – simply wet and cool. Dec at Canberra Airport saw 188.4mm rain or 350% of the average of 53.8mm and daytime temperatures averaged 24.3 compared to the average of 26.1. January to the 16th has seen 48.8mm of rain or 82.4% of the average of 59.2mm – and daytime temperatures averaged 26 or 2 degrees under the average according to Australian Weather News.
If anybody can share any November briefings the BoM was giving to Emergency Services in SE Australia – I would appreciate seeing. Finally, I do not see any warnings for the ACT on this BoM webpage.
Perhaps somebody can translate all these media signals better than I can.

What is wrong with our “warning systems” in this country when low lying roads in the major regional city of Toowoomba were not closed before this flooding struck?

Rainfall is no secret – it falls on a network of recording stations connected by telemetry to the BoM – the BoM report a network of updated rain data on their website;

Rain also falls mostly at night so considering SE Qld has been flood affected for weeks – you might expect that early every morning some “emergency services HQ” might review the nights rain and discuss flood models with the appropriate experts. Then as rain falls through the day – flash flooding potential should leap out at anybody reviewing the models.

It is not rocket science – a quota of rain falls in a catchment – a hydrological model will tell you how and when that water gets to a certain river. With the constant experience of the last few weeks you might expect predictions of river flows to be honed to a new accuracy.

I am amazed these scenes of cars and people being washed down Toowoomba streets are coming from a modern nation. I think the “authorities” have lost the plot
bigtime.

I noticed this article reporting on a BoM – CSIRO initiative to forecast river flows a few months in advance. I just hope they use better models than they employ for the hopeless BoM rainfall and temperature Outlooks.

What caught my eye was the gushing praise from ACTEW our Canberra water utility – whose business model seems to be to charge households increasingly rapacious water bills, and pay increasing money to Govt, while keeping water restrictions permanent as dams overflow and during the dryer times tipping large amounts of water away as “environmental flows”.

The catch for ACTEW is that their praise is exposed as unfounded puff because the BoM – CSIRO “Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts” web pages publish a check on the results of their forecasts in the form of a Table “Summary of skill scores”. Unfortunately for ACTEW forecasts for the two catchments relevant to ACT water supply, Cotter and Queanbeyan both rate pretty poorly. ACTEW comments at the end.

Continue reading Canberra water utility praises ineffective “Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts” →