Anybody following the BoM responses to the series of articles in The Australian questioning the ACORN adjustments has heard this old canard from the BoM. “Oh but our adjustments make no overall difference – the raw trends are the same as ACORN trends”. This can only be true by including the cooling corrections the BoM chooses to make moderating the raging UHI’s contamination in Australian city data.
Category Archives: ACORN SAT
BoM latest Rolls Royce adjusted temperature series
Australian Bureau of Meteorology fails to repair their flagship ACORN temperature dataset as the Director of Meteorology expected
In May 2014 I got a reply from Dr Rob Vertessy, Director of the BoM – to my pointing out that the ACORN-SAT data set had about a thousand examples where a daily MAX was less than the daily MIN. Dr Vertessy said that he expected that these errors would be corrected in an updated version of ACORN-SAT in the second half of 2014.
I just checked ACORN data for Alice Springs back to 1986 and the exact errors discovered by Ed Thurstan in 2013 are still there.
I have not got time to check for a thousand errors so I am assuming the ACORN update is running late. I am not surprised – as I point out in my articles examining ACORN data for Cobar – the ACORN methodology is illogical – relying on computer driven data mining comparisons hundreds of km from Cobar while ignoring data much more adjacent. Cobar ACORN I and Cobar ACORN II. The BoM should save taxpayers some money and scrap the ACORN disaster now.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott famously said “climate change is crap” – maybe he was correct
The Australian newspaper reported that Tony really did say this at Beaufort, Victoria, in December 2009 – Town of Beaufort changed Tony Abbott’s view on climate change
But my posts on BoM adjustments to ACORN-SAT Cobar Meteorological Office temperatures 1963-2013 Episode 1 and Episode 2 – raise a new question.
Follow the logic here. The adjustments the BoM makes in its flagship ACORN-SAT data show that they do not even trust the readings made at Cobar – a state of the art, purpose-built meteorological station, staffed by their own professionals. What they are saying is that for practical purposes it is impossible even for our modern scientific society to measure temperature consistently at a professionally managed site over multi-decades.
Coconut Oil and Olive Oil purchase generic viagra The coconut oil and olive oil. On the other hand, selling generic meds is not beneficial as tadalafil mastercard these products are inexpensive. Is it a certified and approved course: if it levitra 20mg price is secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia, heart ailment, high blood pressure problems. What viagra pharmacy does this look like in practice? Much like it already does when you participate on your favorite social network, but you reap the benefits, you earn the profits, and you have a say in the South) without guilt or second-guessing. Yet temperature data from thousands of stations of vastly lower quality around the world – used without adjustment to prove “global warming” – are bound to carry far more errors that we know little or nothing about. And the adjustments at Cobar alone are as large as the claimed rate of “global warming” over decades.
So whatever the truth of Tony’s assessment of the whole issue, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that “climate change as measured – could well be crap”.
BoM makes large warming adjustments to minimum temperatures prior 2007 in its own professionally collected Cobar Met Office data but fails to include the 2007 adjustment in their own 2014 published list – Episode 2 Cobar ACORN-SAT
This is the second episode in the Cobar ACORN-SAT series examining BoM adjustments to the CDO temperature data – here I start to look at adjustments to minimum temperatures. The 1st episode looked at maximum temperatures. A list of ACORN adjustments to Cobar data is here and you can see the first min adjustment listed is 1st Jan 1972 meaning the adjustment factor applies to all data earlier than that. You will see it is labelled as “Statistical” meaning there is no evidence for it in station diaries or admin records but it derives from computer driven comparisons sifting data differences from multiple stations as far away as Parkes and Hillston – see map. In this case of the 4th adjustment the following stations data was used.
Making the chart of Cobar annual minimum temperatures compared to ACORN-SAT my eye was caught by the adjustment starting in 2006 and affecting all earlier years which I have marked with a blue 6. That is unlisted in the ACORN-SAT documentation and is substantial at about -0.4 degrees C. The slight mismatch between Cobar Met Office and ACORN from 2007-2013 is due to rounding differences because I have made my ACORN annuals by averaging a year of daily data which I leave as produced by Excel with multiple decimal places.
The next adjustment to look for is at 1971 where I have the blue 4, which is the 4th adjustment in the ACORN list and is listed at -0.49 degrees C. The increased departure of ACORN cooler than Met Office to about -0.9 is obvious on the chart.
Examining this adjustment in greater detail I have made a chart comparing Cobar MO and ACORN version with nearest neighbours Bourke, Wilcannia and Nyngan. The average difference between the 1971 & 1972 readings for these 3 stations is +0.2 at Cobar MO, +0.4 at Bourke PO, +0.4 at Nyngan, and -0.4 at Wilcannia, an average for the 3 Cobar neighbours of +0.13, not very different from the +0.2 that we know happened at Cobar Met Office. But instead of leaving the higher quality Cobar Met Office readings well alone – what does the BoM decide to do with their adjustment #4? They take off 0.49° making the 1971-1972 difference now 0.7 – greater by 0.3 than any of the neighbours. Presumably the BoM justify this by their computer driven comparisons with sites as distant as Parkes.
If the reasons for an adjustment can not be seen in nearest neighbours then it must be an exercise in fantasy to search for a reason in a cherry picked array of more distant stations which are all of poorer quality than Cobar Met Office.
It is interesting to check the differences in annual minimums between Cobar Met Office and Cobar Airport which are only about 7 or 8 km apart. You might expect them to be very similar and in lockstep – not so from the chart.
Note the BoM never refer to Cobar Airport data in ACORN-SAT – but we are free to check it out.
First there is no evidence here of a step or jump around 2006 – 2007.
While there are such wildly varying and apparently random differences between these two very adjacent sites – what on earth can the BoM learn by comparing Cobar with Parkes – or indeed any other station in their adjustments list.
These are the sort of unsafe foundations that pro-IPCC climate science is based on.
How the BoM ACORN SAT project has reconstructed Cobar temperature data commencing with an obviously invalid adjustment – Episode 1 Cobar ACORN-SAT
A reader has asked me to look at how ACORN-SAT has adjusted Cobar temperature data. Cobar is an old site with Post Office data from 1881 – then in 1963 the BoM opened the Cobar Met Office on the north side of town. Map from Google Earth with MO marked by “green X”. Detail of Met Office – note housing adjacent. A Met Office is of course purpose built and staffed by BoM professionals. Then in 1994 an Airport station commenced with an AWS.
ACORN-SAT starts with a positive adjustment to the max of 0.41 prior to 1 Jan 1995. Table of ACORN-SAT adjustments for Cobar. I will start by examining the evidence for that first adjustment 1 Jan 1995. This chart shows Cobar district annual max t data from 1963 – the 3 Cobar station plus Bourke PO and Airport – then Wilcannia and Nyngan. All data from the BoM CDO www site. I have marked the year 1995 with a “green 1” – and the first adjustment to Cobar Met Office is indicated by the “green 2”.
Here is a map of NSW showing all stations used in the various ACORN-SAT adjustments of Cobar. Here is a list of stations used in the first adjustment (1 Jan 1995) – the only one we will discuss at this time.
An important note – BoM ACORN-SAT does NOT use Cobar Airport data, despite the two stations only being about 7km apart and as the chart shows the Airport and MO annual max data are in near lockstep as you would expect.
I am saying this first adjustment is invalid for the following reasons.
[1] The Airport data for 1994 & 1995 closely agrees with Met Office so this fact must override whatever signals the BoM computes from “data mining” at diverse stations up to a few hundred kms away some in very different climate zones.
[2] The Cobar Met Office is a purpose built facility staffed by professionals so that data must be considered a more reliable baseline compared to amateur run sites not owned by the BoM.
[3] If there was a valid reason to adjust Cobar MO data prior to 1 Jan 1995 it is ludicrous to think there would not be a reason revealed in the Met Office admin records.
That is my case that the ACORN-SAT version of Cobar fails at the first hurdle.
There has been much valid criticism of ACORN-SAT in recent months and the entire project must be scrapped.
Australian Commonwealth MP George Christensen makes speech critical of Bureau of Meteorology adjusting temperature records
The speech is packed into 5 minutes and is on YouTube.
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An inquiry here – an inquiry there – who knows one day the BoM might be nailed down to give some real answers.
Nationals MP George Christensen
Australian Bureau of Meteorology ACORN warming adjustments to Giles Met Station data do not stand up to scrutiny
The BoM has just this month added a downloadable table of ACORN adjustments to their www site. Giles was established as a purpose built meteorological station in 1956 – I read where its origins relate to Defence – Woomera rocket range. The site has never moved yet the BoM found a statistical reason to add warming to Giles minimum data with a -0.48° adjustment prior to 1 Jan 1998.
The BoM list 10 stations used to compare with Giles to arrive at their warming adjustment on 1/1/1998
1/1/1998 Statistical adjustment
Warburton Airfield 13011 – W
Watarrka 15652 – Wat
Carnegie 13015 – C
Uluru Rangers 15660 – U
Kulgera 15603 – K
Telfer Aero 13030 – T
Yulara Airport 15635 – Y
Marla Police Station 16085 – MPS
Coober Pedy Airport 16090 – CP
Curtin Springs 15511 – CS
This map shows the above 10 stations as well as other stations used to justify time of obs adjustments in 1964 and 1978 which I am not addressing specifically here – some stations are in more than one list. Abbreviations for the sites are after the BoM station number.
1978 Time of Obs adjustment
Warburton Airfield 13011 – W
Ayers Rock 15527 – hidden on map by Uluru Rangers
Telfer Aero 13030 – T
Ernabella 16013 – E
Newman 7151 – N
Curtin Springs 15511 – CS
Sand Hill 5064 – SH
1964 Time of Obs adjustment
Maralinga 18114 – Ma
Mundiwindi 7062 – M
Cook 18110 – Co
In the 1/1/1998 Statistical adjustment list – at least two stations are so low quality with huge gaps that I am amazed the BoM would use them to make changes to data from the purpose built – 24/7 professionally staffed Giles Met Office.
Warburton Airfield – comments on graphic from the Climate Data Online BoM site – just type in station numbers –
Uluru Rangers – once again so gap ridden it is staggering the BoM would use such low quality data to alter thousands of readings from the purpose built – 24/7 professionally staffed Giles Met Office.
There is more – most of these comparison stations are so far from Giles that there is no validity in the comparisons – some like Telfer and Newman are in a different climate zone. In 1991 when the BoM critiqued a paper of mine they said that Charleville and Cunnamulla were not neighbours and that “Regional differences in climate would present a major uncertainty in some of the conclusions drawn from the comparisons.” Readers can see from the map how far Charleville is from Cunnamulla – far closer than most of the BoM comparisons with Giles. BoM hypocrisy level is high.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology needs to be questioned about their temperature adjustments – under conditions such as at a Royal Commission or at Senate Estimates
The latest article by Ken Stewart – Rutherglen: Spot the Outlier – builds on the momentum started by Dr Jennifer Marohasy who was a key to articles in The Australian on 23-24 August which questioned the BoM ACORN SAT high warming adjusted temperature series. And of course Jo Nova has been active on this issue for a long time.
Top BoM people need to be questioned about ACORN SAT under conditions where there is no escape – then truth might emerge into the light.
It is time to get Australian Bureau of Meteorology station histories out of archives – we need to see how good BoM metadata is
The best reference I know to BoM station diaries is the 45 page summary by Simon Torok for his 1996 PhD thesis – “The development of a high quality historical temperature data base for Australia”
This can be downloaded in full in several parts at –
minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/handle/11343/39449
However the Appendix A1 containing the 45 page summary of all station diaries he accessed can be downloaded as an 8MB pdf at – p38/46 Rutherglen station histories – I note their is no entry for Amberley and the entry for Rutherglen is brief.
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I saw these diaries in the BoM library at Lonsdale Street, Melbourne in the early 1990’s – a series of maybe foolscap ledgers. I assumed they were put into Commonwealth archives – National Archives of Australia.
If anybody can locate them – please let me know.
Amazing breakthrough by Dr Jennifer Marohasy getting articles critical of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in our national media
A rare example of the MSM publishing anything critical of the BoM “The Australian newspaper says – Bureau ‘altering climate figures’ – on page 9 of their The Nation section. My A4 scanner did not capture the full headline.
Then Andrew Bolt asks a pertinent question –
How much of this warming is real? How much was created back in the office?
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There is a second longer article on page 20 of the Inquirer section but I can not see that online. Scanned copy here. But Jen has a post on this – Heat is on over weather bureau ‘homogenising temperature records’.
Facts are the BoM has been stunningly successful in keeping this sort of criticism out of the MSM for near 25 years.