Media are running with this story – Warm November set heat record for planet –
NOAA have their own page too – NOAA – Global Analysis – November 2013
Yet RSS lower troposphere satellite temperature anomalies say November 2013 was only 16th warmest since 1978. UAH data shows November 2013 to be 9th equal warmest – so no support for NOAA there either.
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When you consider the miniscule thin skin of atmosphere that satellites are sounding it seems unlikely that they should vary by so much from the surface.
I know I would back many thousands of soundings being pinged constantly and impartially by the little travellers against the surface thermometer network with all its known biases – not to mention constant adjustments so that the past is colder.
Category Archives: Surface Record
December temperatures start cool across Australia
If you make maps here for maximum and minimum anomalies – period one week – you can see the extent of cool anomalies.
The first 10 days of December look to have been cooler than average.
You read it first here.
Contrast this reality with the amount of talk about heat you hear on TV weather segments.
Recycled five year old story about global warming threatening White Lemuroid Possum
I first saw this issue raised in 2008.
Now the ABC are running the same storyline – basically the Daintree is heating due “global warming” and this is causing the White Lemuroid Possum to be endangered.
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Pindan Post has had something to say too.
Warming departure in UAH lower troposphere satellite temperatures compared to RSS over the period 2005-2006
Some checking of Australian temperature trends for various data series lead me to compare UAH and RSS satellites – so I choose the land only block of much of Australia – 30°South to 20°South and 120°East to 145°East. The chart shows the very noticeable 0.5°C warming in UAH compared to RSS over 2005-2006.
The warming trends over the 41 months Jan 1979 to Sep 2013 are –
UAH warmed at 0.61°C while RSS, CRUT4 & GHCN CAMS warmed at 0.23, 0.35 & 0.31 respectively.
All the above data has been obtained from KNMI Climate Explorer.
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Australia, Southern Africa, South America, Sahara, various tropical ocean areas, Europe – you can find plenty of examples.
I have heard from UAH that the differences are due to a combination of diurnal corrections, the changing satellite mix and natural differences between surface and lower troposphere.
Sydney weather forecast gets less accurate one day before hot day
On Tuesday 8 Oct 2013 the Sydney Morning Herald reported – NSW temperatures may hit 40 degrees on Thursday prompting extreme fire warnings – In the article it says – Sydney is forecast to reach 37 degrees – Although the photo at the top of the article carried the misleading caption – Hot in the city: Sydney is likely to swelter on Thursday with temperatures predicted to reach 40 degrees.
Then on 9 Oct 2013 SMH has a headline – Sydney weather forecast revised to 39 degrees – Much mention in the article of high wind speeds including 100k gusts at Huskisson – yet no gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k.
So what actually happened on Thursday the 10th –
Sydney temperatures were 2° below forecast –
Canberra, Goulburn, Wagga Wagga, Albury were all 2° below forecast.
Further west temperatures were closer to forecasts
No wind gust was recorded at Nowra or Point Perpendicular exceeding 70k – what happened to the 100k figure that was concerning fire people?
Overall an inaccurate scaremongering updated forecast on the 9th.
Here is yesterdays effort at the SMH posted early evening – Sydney weather: heat to continue before big drop –
What would be a rational statement about Sydney weather on 10 Oct 2013 – a very hot day in October similar but not quite as hot as some previous October days over a century or more ? And of course all of the BoM and media comment makes no mention that the ever expanding Sydney urban heat island could have had any effect at all yesterday.
Comparing new IPCC global map of 1901-2012 temperature trends – with GISS maps for same period
A reader has drawn my attention to this map from page 27/36 IPCC WGI AR5 SPM-1 27 Sep 2013 – I am not sure what dataset is used (probably HadCRUT) – have not found the Technical Summary Supplementary Material yet. Have to say I was not aware such a large area of South America was warming as shown.
Interesting to compare with the GISS maps for the same period – fascinating how the different SST groups treat the Pacific Ocean – but the science is settled of course. This first map uses SST from the GISS combination of Hadley & Reynolds.
The second GISS map uses the NOAA ERSST data.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology lacking required scientific balance in reporting warmest July for Melbourne – record warmth was confined mainly to inner urban “heat island”
BoM inspired media reports have widely spread the news that July 2013 in Melbourne was the warmest on record – most seem to be quoting daytime or maximum temperatures. here are a few articles –
Sydney Morning Herald –
Herald Sun –
ABC Online news –
I recall seeing an article that did mention the ever expanding Melbourne “urban heat island” (UHI). I quick check of July mean max for the following outer Melbourne weather stations indicates that outside the centre of Melbourne July in 1975 was warmer than July 2013. The record July 2013 warmth seems confined to the Melbourne UHI. Checking BoM data histories here and getting July 2013 data from here, select your station then follow the “Recents Months at…” links
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Melbourne Airport BoM# 86282 – July 2013 14.7 – July 1975 15.1
Frankston BoM# 86079 – July 2013 14.2 – July 1975 14.8
Other Victorian stations to have July 1975 – or July from several other years, warmer than July 2013 are, Echuca Airport BoM# 80015, Rutherglen Research Station BoM# 82039, East Sale Airport BoM# 85072, Ouyen Post Office BoM# 76047, Omeo BoM# 83025.
Surely any balanced media release from the BoM should have recognized the restricted and man-driven nature of their Melbourne claim.
Claim of warmest July ever for Canberra fails to pass elementary checks
The mainstream media TV weather news and press has been spouting the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) claim that July was the warmest ever in Canberra with a mean monthly max of 13.3. Yet you only have to check early 20th Century data from Queanbeyan to see the claim is dubious. Data from BoM.
Queanbeyan recorded the same 13.3 in July 1924 and 1937. This pill viagra prescription price is composed by plantain seed, talcum, fringed pink, polygonum aviculare, red flower, red peony root, herba houttuyniae, cowherb seed etc. The inflammation does viagra 20mg india not occur in the muscle wall of arteries but in the inner ‘Intima Media’. It is viagra online doctor noteworthy to mention that erectile dysfunction can also be caused due to several emotional and psychological reasons. All you need for this is a proper cure to the issue? The issue of erectile dysfunction can be defined as a person’s inability to sustain or maintain his erection for longer time or period. levitra without prescription OK so Qbn was no doubt UHI affected to some extent – but probably no more so than Canberra Airport is now. So given the poor quality of data from weather stations – the best you could claim about July is that it was warm and probably similar to a few other July’s in the past 100 years. As I have said a few times, everything the BoM says needs examining with a fine toothed comb.
Bureau of Meteorology feeds the main-stream-media dubious warming propaganda
I was interested in this Sydney Morning Herald article with various statements about recent warm conditions in Sydney.
When you search for the headline – Cooler weather to mark start of winter – at the SMH website you get this intro text at the link –
“Another warm month makes the last 12 the hottest June-May stretch on record for Australia…think about that over the wet, cool weekend.” So I thought about that – take a look at the BoM map of maximum temperature anomalies for the 12 months ended 31st May. See that the highest ranking anomalies are in areas where the data is most scarce. Note that Alice Springs with data from ~1878 is the longest term station by far near these BoM high rank red anomalies. Checking Alice Springs history at this BoM site you need to copy and paste data for Alice Springs Post Office 15540 and then Alice Springs Airport 15590. Updating recent months from here.
You find that the 12 months ending 31 May 2013 averaged 30.6 – the 12 months ending 31 May 1881 averaged 30.8 – and the 12 months ending 31 May 1893 averaged 30.7. So I am left with the suspicion that if we had adequate historic data over Australia – then the statement – “Another warm month makes the last 12 the hottest June-May stretch on record for Australia…think about that over the wet, cool weekend.” – would be even harder to justify.
Any warmth in Autumn is at least partly due to the ever growing Urban Heat Island over Sydney. Rarely mentioned by the BoM and their supporters.
Another claim in the article – “Autumn registered only six days of days below 20 degrees…”. Attempts to paint Autumn as unusually warm – yet look at the BoM maps of maximum temperature anomalies for autumn – amazing anomalies of zero to 1 degree C. Near normal weather – what an utter non-event.
Another Bureau of Meteorology failed three month temperature Outlook – Autumn 2013
This month the BoM announced “Seasonal Climate Outlook released today using a new model” but it will take more than a new model and colour scheme to get lipstick onto this pig. The BoM three month Outlooks are useless, should be abandoned and the money saved for more successful and worthy projects.
The temperature Outlook for Autumn has been a typical miserable failure.
Maximum temperature Outlook and real world maximum anomalies result
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Minimum temperature Outlook and real world minimum anomalies result