Category Archives: Surface Record

UK MetOffice predicts HOT 2007

The UK Met Office is predicting that 2007 will be warmer than 1998. We are accustomed to “hottest year” stories jumping out in November or December, but early January !!, this seems prescient beyond belief.

Reading deeper into this story we find the UKMO is relating the 2006 El Nino to the 1997 event and concluding that 2007 will exceed the warmth of 1998. Looking at this small figure from the NOAA web page:
SOI-SST ex NOAA
and comparing 1997-98 to 2006-07, it is hard to see that 2007 will be particularly hot. The 1997-98 El Nino was a monster compared to the “on again, off again tiddler” of 2006.

We will see, read on for full article.
Continue reading UK MetOffice predicts HOT 2007

Another error in HadCRUT2 gridded data.

While exploring the KNMI Climate Explorer in late July this monster jumped out of the Jones data.
Error in Jones gridded data over ChinaI emailed both CE and CRU about this and the balance of what I have been told is that the error was in the data as imported to CE.
This 20 years after PDJ has been nurturing all this stuff.
The issue is, what other errors would be found with a half diligent search ?

What integrity is there in global SST trends ?

I made this map of sea surface temperature (SST) trends at the GISS website module, and it shows the 27 year trends 1979-2005 for an SST dataset GISS names HadReyn_v2 which I take in to mean the Hadley Centre version 2 SST’s with Reynolds data grafted on post 1982.
Giss SST trends map 1979-2005
There may be another explanation of exactly what the dataset is but for sure it is the SST data Jim Hansen’s GISS group chooses to use.

I have annotated several warm anomalies that caught my eye and have compared UAH satellite trends over those warm patches with the the combined land sea HadCRUT2 data calculated at www.co2science.org.

See the Table for stunning differences in HadCRUT2 minus MSU, up to 1 degree C in 27 years !! The table also sets out the Lat & Long for various five degree grid cells that include these warm SST patches. For some history of the development of the SST datsets go to my page showing graphics of huge corrections required in raw SST data.

NZ Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition
Hon Secretary: Terry Dunleavy MBE,
14A Bayview Road, Hauraki, North Shore City 0622
Phone (09) 486 3859 – Mobile 0274 836688 –
Email terry@winezeal.co.nz
www.climatescience.org.nz/

2 August 2006

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

A major difference in measurement between NIWA and the international body IPCC, concerning New Zealand temperature trends contradicts the assertion of the Minister for Climate Change, David Parker, that climate science is “settled.” This claim has been made by an expatriate New Zealand earth scientist, Warwick Hughes, now living in Perth.
Continue reading NZ Temperature difference shows climate science not settled

Is massive UHI warming in China distorting Jones et al gridded T data ?

A recent paper discussing long term temperature trends in China presents a graphic of century long trends including the Jones data.

ZHAO Zongci, DING Yihui, LUO Yong, and WANG Shaowu, “Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China” , Acta Meteorologica Sinica 2005, Vol 19, 389-400.”

The caption refers to four trends from various sources being coloured but my copy was B & W. Anyway, it is clear there is much agreement and what really tweaked my interest was the strong warming post 1970.

Using the gridded data downloadable from www.CO2science.org comparisons have been made between the Jones data and the UAH / NASA satellite MSU data for the period (1979-2005). Results in Table A for a block of eight grid cells covering much of Eastern China were quite stunning in revealing a difference of 0.96 degrees C for the 27 year period 1979-2005.

Jones vs MSU trends 1979-2005

Can anyone have any doubt that the reason for this huge difference is in fact the influence of rapidly expanding UHI warming on China weather station data?

Similar experiments were repeated over Europe, Central Asia / Russia, Sahara to Iran(added 18 Aug) and New Zealand. Results are set out in Table A and reveal a stark contrast to the blizzard of pro-IPCC views in recent times that global temperature datasets from the surface and lower troposhere are now in substantial agreement following corrections by the UAH team.

Any agreement in global trends between the various datasets is probably due to the averaging of various errors from here and there to give an appearance of agreement.

Svalbard inhomogenous temperature data

The Norwegian island of Svalbard, (previously Spitzbergen) has been the locus of some abnormal warm monthly temperatures of late. See recent post on RealClimate by Drs Michael Mann and Phil Jones.

In mid 2000 I commented on the inhomogenous warm trend in Isfjord Radio data. There are comparisons with nearest neighbours, comments on the Jones et al 1986 station intercomparisons and even some comments by Dr Jones.

In conclusion I wrote:

On the basis of the Andenes and TromsØ differences, the wild variations and erratic warm drift in homogeneity between these stations should have been reason for Isfjord Radio to be rejected. No notes or reference to retaining Isfjord Radio as some special case, are to be found in Jones et al 1991 and its retention in the database represents a touching faith in geostatistics outliers.

Looking at the idea that ice melting could be the reason for the rapid warming in Spitzbegen 1912-1923, consider the global map of Jones 1994 temperature anomalies 1901-1996 in Karl 1998 and we see the the Svalbard (Spitzbergen) grid box warms at about 4 degrees, twice that of any other grid box on the planet.

If this rapid warming was due to ice melting, common sense tells us it must have happened somewhere else. A huge magnitude rapid warming such as this could not just occur in a 5 degree grid box. Look at the high northern latitudes on the Karl 1998 map and there are no other comparable examples despite a good scattering of stations above the Arctic Circle.

This case is a manifestation of the lapse in critical standards in climatology, which is after all a very new and ( up to the advent of the IPCC ), very small science.

Just to end up with an example from the real world of mineral exploration known well to the writer. Geochemical and geophysical data which are the mainstay of the orebody discovery process are littered with outlier values that if targeted with drilling would rapidly bankrupt any mineral exploration company. Exploration geologists every day have to deal with filtering out spurious signals from their geostatistics so that scarce exploration funding is not wasted.

In the current world of climatology, large amounts of greenhouse industry controlled taxpayer funded research grants will inevitably dull essential scientific scepticism.

San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends.

San Juan was studied in the 1980’s by C.E Duchon who published in 1986, "Temperature Trends at San Juan, Puerto Rico, Bull.Amer.Met.Soc. 67, 1370-1377. A downloadable pdf file of this paper is available through BAMS. Click on Print Version for Duchon, Claude E.

My 20th Anniversary Review of Jones et al 1986 explores how San Juan was specifically mentioned in Wood’s 1988 critique of Jones et al 1986. The issue of San Juan was elucidated in the Wigley & Jones reply to Wood 1988 see point (5) in my Table listing the sparring between Wood and Wigley & Jones.
Continue reading San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends.

Urban cooling in Sweden?

Do you know that GISS sometimes correct temperature data for supposed urban cooling? Let us look at examples from southern Sweden.

The three towns Karlstad, Jönköping, and Visby all have small airports. Of these towns, Visby is located on Gotland, the largest island in the Baltic Sea. Karlstad lies on the northern shores of the largest lake of Sweden, while Jönköping lies on the southern shores of the second largest lake. These two lakes are nearby to each other, and it seems unlikely that there could be any climate change at one of them not affecting the other.
Continue reading Urban cooling in Sweden?

Little agreement with BoM claims 2005 was Australia’s hottest year

The Australian BoM has made much media fanfare with its claims that 2005 has been Australia’s hottest year. Coolwire 17 points out that the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich, long quoted by the IPCC and the Universit of Alabama at Huntsville group compiling satellite data for the lower troposphere, both produce anomaly maps showing 1998 was warmer for Australia. 

The NASA GISS group do agree with the BoM that 1998 was warmer than 2005 but they quote data from 1 Nov 2004 to 30 Nov 2005, not calendar 2005. However we count that as a point for the BoM.

Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS

There is a tendency around to claim that satellite Lower Troposphere (LT) T trends now agree with Jones et al (land & sea) and GISS land based trends. 
But this is not so.
Trend differences of circa 0.047 C per decade are huge when viewed against the claims by Jones et al / IPCC of only 0.05 C UHI contamination over the century plus surface record.  For graphic and details. Continue reading Satellite global temperature trends; still much less warming than Jones and GISS