Category Archives: Surface Record

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record

World War II “corrections” live on in dubious Hadley Centre SST data from deep in the Southern Ocean

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I had been admiring Steve McIntyre’s demolition of the Steig et al 2009 claims (much promoted in the Australian media) that Antarctic was “warming after all”. I think this is the first article on Climate Audit, then several others followed into February. Try not to miss, When Harry Met Gill

It turns out there were errors in Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, surprise, surprise.

Also enjoying reading of the discomfort from UnRealClimate as their paradigm unraveled on the world stage. While digging around in Antarctic data to check on the claims of Steig et al 2009 to have found a West Antarctic “Hot Spot”, I thought I would check first what UAH satellite lower troposphere trends showed for the region from 180 west to 60 west and south of 60 south, also what GISS land data showed for that region. Using data from the KNMI Climate Explorer.

Both GISS and UAH MSU lower troposphere agree there is no trend 1979-2008 for that region which includes the Steig et al “hot spot”, see maps at Climate Audit. You can try the sector from 70 south too, still great agreement between GISS and UAH that there is no warming.

Clearly Steig et al should have checked their data against other datasets and they might have been lead to discover the errors in their AWS data and could have saved taxpayers the trouble of paying to publish their dubious claims.

Then I was curious what SST data showed for the 120 degree sector from 180 west to 60 west and south of 60 south, which includes the Steig et al “hot spot”; I came across these odd aberrations in the latest HadISST1 data.

SST's near Steig et al hot spot

HadSST2 which has been around for years showed just scraps of data in the same sector. Fair enough, I guess not much shipping ventures down there without good reason.

HasSST2 data near Steig et al hot spot
Getting curious I checked HadISST1 for the remaining 240 degree sector south of 60S, from 60W to 180E (Int. Date Line), you can see the aberrations in this sector partly cancel out the non-climatic errors in the Steig et al sector.

Getting too much for me.

SST for 240 degrees sector S of 60S

So how on earth has the latest HadISST1 data got to be so complete and display these various non-climatic trends ? What was discovered between HadSST2 and the construction of HadISST1?

Checking HadISST1 for some other latitude bands in the Southern Hemisphere.

First, south of 70S, are all these flat line trends some sort of data padding ?

HadISST1 80S to 70S

Next 70S to 60S, we are starting to get accustomed to strange.

HadISST1 70S to 60S
60S to 50S, whole new trend emerges, never before been seen.

HadISST1 60S to 50S

Gets a bit more normal looking near the equator.

It looks obvious to me that questionable WWII period corrections have inadvertently found their way into far southern ocean data to produce these surreal results over a very large area of ocean. Just backs up what I have said for years that much SST data has little integrity and longer term trends using SST’s can be dubious. One thing is for sure, we will never know exactly how this taxpayer funded shambles came about.

One last plot, this time in the far north, from 80N to 85N, more data padding ?

HadISST1 80N to 85N

Oh, and remember when policymakers say, “the science is settled”.

BoM Australia, Climate indicators, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record

How reliable are Coral Sea SST (Sea Surface Temperature) data ?

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There is a discussion at the Jennifer Marohasy blog, “Sea-surface Temperatures along the Great Barrier Reef” Posted by John McLean, January 5th, 2009, re recent research from AIM in Townsville that global warming is harming the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The AIM scientists use the UK Hadley Centre SST data to show global warming is affecting coral.
This got me to take another look at a post of mine on Willis Island in the Coral Sea, a site that refuses to warm.
[Note here how politicians were running with the pro-warming conclusions, long before the published paper by De’ath et al is available.]
At the time I compiled Hadley and Reynolds SST data along with lower troposphere satellite temperature trends for the grid cell 15 to 20 degrees South and 145 to 155 East, which neatly has Willis Is. fairly central and extends west to the GBR coast.
This graphic shows that the Hadley SST data warms by ~0.75 degrees C while Willis Island land data actually cools slightly.
Willis Is composite trends
Now a good photo of the Willis Is. weather instruments can be found on the “Australia’s Reference Climate Station Network” web page.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/reference.shtml#rcsmap
by clicking on Willis Island on their map.
[Let me know where the actual BoM RCS temperature data can be downloaded from please]
Willis Is weather station
Now take in this idyllic scene and ask yourself, could the sea surface temperatures warm without warming air above them, which must then be reflected by the thermometers inside the Stevenson Screen which looks to be only 100-200 metres away ? That is what the Hadley Centre and the US based NOAA/NCDC are asking us to believe with their over-adjusted SST data. That the sea can warm without affecting air so close over the island. Note both the satellite data and Willis Is. cool slightly 1979-2005 while the Hadley SST’s warm. For the period 1982-2005 both the satellite data and Willis Is. cool slightly while both sets of SST’s warm.
Note: I downloaded the SST and satellite data from the KNMI website www.climexp.knmi.nl/
Continue reading How reliable are Coral Sea SST (Sea Surface Temperature) data ? →

Climate indicators, IPCC, News and Views, Surface Record

Hadley Centre versus Reynolds (NOAA) SST data

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Subtitle: “0.45 deg C per Century warming in Hadley Centre sea surface temperature (SST) data for both hemispheres compared to Reynolds (NOAA) SST data 1982-2008”

I have been surprised at the magnitude of the hemispheric differences between HadSST2 and Reynolds V2 SST data, equivalent to 0.45 degrees C per Century.

In 2006 I found errors in Hadley Centre SST data in previous work around New Zealand, for example.
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In August 2006 I posted: “What integrity is there in global SST trends ?”

If anyone has the computing ability and time to produce some global maps of monthly differences between HadSST2 and Reynolds V2 SST data, please let me know. This would allow homing in exactly where the discrepancies are located and assessing the validity of both series against other data.

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Marked deterioration in Willis Island temperature data quality

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The small coral atoll Willis Island (16.3 South, 150 East) is the site of a weather station in the Coral Sea just over 400 kms easterly from Cairns, north Queensland, Australia.
At a time of national green media driven near hysteria over “global warming” and widely accepted claims that the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is threatened by “global warming”, it seems odd in this modern day and age that highly relevant temperature data can not be successfully recorded.
Why has Willis Island temperature data deteriorated to such an extent as to now be useless ?
Below is the monthly mean data from NASA GISS from 1992 the year with the first missing month
Continue reading Marked deterioration in Willis Island temperature data quality →

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Is the Great Barrier Reef threatened by global warming ?

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On the night of the Australian Federal Election 24 November 2007 Treasurer Elect Wayne Swan was heard to say on Channel 9 TV that the swing to the ALP in electorates along the Queensland coast was due in part to “global warming threatening the Great Barrier Reef (GBR)”.
Willis Is temperatre trend
Here is the temperature trend for Willis Island, site of a weather station in the Coral Sea just over 400 kms easterly from Cairns. The Liberal Senator Helen Coonan tried bravely to swim against the tide and hinted at complex scientific issues that had to be understood but her effort was swept aside.

Does anyone seriously think the GBR could be “threatened by global warming”, when the Willis island data shows no trend since WWII ?
How do such fairy stories pass as fact and become part of national mass belief ?

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

True temperature trends for Puerto Rico hidden in fragmented data

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Last year I posted “San Juan Puerto Rico, EXACTLY how UHI warming can get into global gridded T trends” . I should have added this Fig 4 from Duchon’s 86 paper that I refer to.

There is IPCC AGW shouting out from the UHI affected San Juan trend, incorporated by Jones et al and the IPCC of course.
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The trends below in Fig 4, from smaller places show little warming. Data are of poorer quality in a technical sense, but that is where the truth is.

IPCC, Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record

Another solid win at ClimateAudit.org

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Steve McIntyre over at Climate Audit has had his hard work pay off with a discovery that the USA temperature data of Dr James Hansen of NASA GISS has concealed an error in recent years. This I understand affects the ranking of which is the hottest year in USA thermometer history. NASA had claimed 1998 as the hottest year for USA but I understand that after this error is allowed for, 1934 is still the hottest year.

It is a shame that the Climate Audit site is down as I write but they will be back again pretty soon I am sure.
I thought I would just quickly illustrate that there is little agreement bewteen the big climate groups about the ranking of 1934 and 1998. Using data from the KNMI ClimateExplorer.nl

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We see that the Hadley Centre and Jones both have 1998 well below 1934. Jones CRUT2 stops in 2005 but the Hadley Centre CRUT3 has 2006 (1.08689) almost as warm as 1934 (1.09514).

The GHCN based CAMS has 2006 relatively lower than the UK based groups and the Spencer and Christy satellite data from the lower troposphere sees 1999 higher than 1998 and 2006 not notably warm as the Hadley Centre finds but the satellite data obviously includes areas of ocean while all the other series are land only.

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends

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This paper by Dr Robert Balling Jr and myself examines a series of rural and small town South African temperature data and compared 30 year trends with available Jones 1994 grid box trends.
Rural vs IPCC T trends
We found clear evidence that warming trends were much higher in the Jones data which of course includes many large urban centres. The trend of our 19 station series from non-urban sites is shown red in this extract from our Fig 2.
Continue reading 1996 paper finds UHI bias in Jones et al IPCC South African temperature trends →

Atmospheric science, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Review comments on papers by the “great and the good”

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A catch-all post for comments on my various reviews on significant pro IPCC climate papers.

Dr Rolf Philipona has kindly replied to my comments on his 2005 paper. I intend to present more data for various parameters in the weeks ahead.

Just for now though I want to restate that the Greenhouse Effect has to act in the lower atmosphere and then some of that heat is re-radiated to the surface. See basic descriptions on this NOAA site.

Hence my comment that I feel it is odd to ignore lower troposphere trends, because that is where AGW has first to take place.

IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is driven by increases in trace gases carbon dioxide, methane etc plus contentious postulated positive feedbacks from water vapour which as many authorities state is by far the most abundant greenhouse gas.

To wrap up for now, just a few very general points. Readers who follow weather forecasts and associated satellite imagery do not need me to point out that the lower atmosphere is characterized by constant large scale movement, lateral and vertical and circulation of air masses on hemispheric scales. Dr Philipona has alluded to looking to understand European warming to some extent outside the influence of the NAO and other people may comment on that.

Then there are issues of truly colossal scale heat transport such as the ever present Gulfstream which prevents the European climate from being significantly more frigid.

I have trouble imagining that Dr Philipona’s “line to the sky” radiation measurements from his Alpine site, however beautifully expressed in mathematics, can explain European warming in the face of these other confounding weather and climate factors.