Category Archives: Surface Record

Australian Climate Commission makes dodgy claims about Western Sydney hot days

About a week ago Dr Tim Flannery, Professor Lesley Hughes and other Climate Commission luminaries went public with claims about hot days above 35C in Western Sydney including;
“…hot days had already increased 60 per cent in western Sydney since 1970…”
and – Federal Climate Commissioner Professor Lesley Hughes says western Sydney is getting disproportionally hotter and drier than the rest of Sydney.
“If we compare western Sydney with the rest of Sydney, the number of hot days in western Sydney used to be three times as many as eastern Sydney, and now it’s four times,” she said.
These claims are from the Climate Commission report – “The Critical Decade: New South Wales climate impacts and opportunities”. If you Google the report title you will find the ~5MB pdf download.
Here is the Climate Commission Figure 3 from page 4.

Which gives them the pictorial of increasing heat that they want you to believe.
Here is the entire Sydney record showing warm peaks in 1926 and the 1940’s – so deliberately censored out by the Climate Commission because those inconvenient data destroy their pro-IPCC storyline.

I have also shown the Richmond RAAF data which commenced in December 1939 (so missed out on Jan-March 39) and shows the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees in 1940 – despite 1940 data only including Jan to the first few days of May, no data for December. So the all time peak of 36 days over 35 degrees would probably have been higher if all the data had been preserved. Then there was no data for 1941-42 – 1943,44,45 were OK but 1946 only has Jan-May (with a few gaps) yet still made 21 days over 35C. The gap post May 1946 carries on through 1947-52. Then 1953 does not start until late April yet still made 15 days over 35C. So we are fortunate that enough data has been preserved from Dec 1939 to show up the Climate Commission distortions of our history.
To sum up how the Climate Commission has been misleading.
[1] Shortening the Sydney trend to censor out periods warmer than they want you to know about.
[2] Failing to find the well known Richmond RAAF data – which comprehensively ruins their storyline.
[3] Leaving a large gap in their Paramatta trend circa 1978 which they should have known was concealing a peak comparable to the last few years. Keeping their storyline intact again.
[4] Making all manner of scaremongering statements about heatwaves based on 1,2 & 3.
It is interesting to reflect that if Hitler had not invaded Poland in Sept 1939 – the RAAF would maybe not have been so active at their Richmond base and the BoM might not have commenced the temperature station there in Dec 1939.
And the Climate Commission would have been more likely to have succeeded with their misleading version of the history of hot days in Western Sydney.
Jennifer Marohasy and Basil Beamish have reported on these issues before me – thanks to them both.
Climate Commission Fudges Hot Day Data
and
Basil Beamish for Climate Commissioner – which shows how Bathurst data too ruins the Climate Commission fairystories.

Aerial thermal scans over Perth – 16 years after this technology was used in the USA to measure urban heat island (UHI) effects

Chris Gilham has posted an item from the West Australian newspaper reporting the results of aerial thermal scans over Perth by a commercial firm Scantherma.
Of course this imagery can be used to prove the existence of the urban heat island (UHI) which magically never finds its way into IPCC temperature trends.
It is good to see this airborne technology used in Australia but airborne and satellite imagery has been detecting the UHI for decades. Here are several examples.
Continue reading Aerial thermal scans over Perth – 16 years after this technology was used in the USA to measure urban heat island (UHI) effects

Data downloads for the Ed Thurstan CRUT4 analysis

The Ed Thurstan files are zipped and can be downloaded;
www.warwickhughes.com/papers/etdata.zip – approx 27Mb
www.warwickhughes.com/papers/etodds.zip – other 2 under 500Kb each
www.warwickhughes.com/papers/etprogrampack.zip

On 23 March I started comparing CRUT4 with CRUT3 over Australia – these grid box anomaly maps shows large differences in 2007.
The newly released CRUT4 shows many warmer tweaks over the Australian region
More later.

You know how the warmists parrot on that “satellites agree with surface temperatures” – not any more – they should check the data.

Half a decade back you could make the case that trends 1979-2005 in the old land only CRUTem2 were not too different from University of Alabama at Huntsville AMSU satellite based lower troposphere trends.

The introduction of the UKMO dominated CRUTem3 in 2006 saw the land trends 1979-2005 blow out and the just introduced CRUTem4 of Dr Phil Jones et al has increased the warming trend 1979-2010 again over the earlier CRUTems and satellites.
So the next time somebody says to you, “…well anyway the satellite temperature trends agree with the surface…”..
You should ask them to check the numbers because it simply is not so anymore.

Landmark EIKE study of global temperature trends 1906-2005 using 2249 GISS stations concludes 0.17 UHI and a non-urban baseline warming only 0.41 degrees

This global study at the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) – How Natural is the Recent Centennial Warming? – is the first that jumps to mind in over two decades by a group sceptical of AGW – that applies statistical analysis to thousands of temperature station data and concludes there is a standout UHI signal.
Andrew Bolt has an article on this – “Climate study: er, what man-made warming?”
I just hope this is the start of a determined research effort that might in the years ahead blunt the harm done to science by over two decades of the UHI infested various CRUTem versions.

The newly released CRUT4 shows many warmer tweaks over the Australian region

My attention was caught by the release of the new version of the UK Met Office / Prof Jones global land temperatures – CRUT4. Just quickly pulling up data plotted as 5 degree grid cells from the KNMI Climate Explorer – for the broad Australian region as per these maps. These are anomalies for 2007 relative to the 1961-1990 period.

Checking various Australian grid cells it is clear that on balance CRUT4 finds more warmth than CRUT3.

This chart shows the trends – and CRUT4 warms by 0.67 compared to 0.58 for CRUT3. The chart also shows that from 2006 onwards CRUT4 is jumped up – whereas in early years CRUT4 is always cooler than CRUT3.
There are several puzzling features of the data and here are a few – the Tuvalu grid cell (2 nth of Fiji) gets lost in CRUT4, probably swamped by rising sea levels – the grid cell with Giles Meteorological Office Number: 13017 is blank in both versions – Giles is I think our most remote & purpose built station. No data can be found for 2007 in all the huge island of New Guinea and a large sector of Indonesia. Looking at New Zealand – Dunedin is missing data as is that region east of Wellington.

Weakening sunspot activity could cause a 1 degree temperature drop 2009-2020

New paper –
“The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24” – Jan-Erik Solheima, Kjell Stordahlb, Ole Humlum. Full paper to read – if only all scientific papers were so easy to access.
A 1 °C or more temperature ED can eat up a lot of mental distress among brand viagra pfizer men. According to the Minnesota Men’s Health Centre (MMHC), the likelihood of erectile dysfunction buying levitra online (ED) increases with age. Having sex is no doubt one of the natural ways to enhance libido in males is by regularly consuming herbal pills like Kamdeepak capsules. A man with cost of viagra canada ED fails to attain an erection. drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations. Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
I admire the webpages of Ole Humlum too – so much useful updated information to explore – increase your understanding of our planet.

Daily Kos runs a poll on Dr Michael Mann of hockey stick fame

Dr Michael Mann of Penn State University is the principal author of the famous graph of the 1000 years temperature trend known as “the hockey stick graph”. Recalling the late and great John Daly and his very early take on the hockey stick. Around a decade ago McIntyre and McKitrick began their destruction of the hockey stick – but the thing lives on in various reports here n there.
One of the few rights still left to us is to vote in internet polls – so have your say.

2011: Hottest year on record for Perth Metro – says the Bureau of Meteorology – not so in the Darling Ranges

The BoM went public in December 2011 saying it was the hottest year ever in Perth. This press was followed up with their page spelling out the BoM case. I noticed the BoM said little about any stations except Perth Metro – it is well known around climate people that the Perth recording site has moved a few times since the late 19th Century. I have had a quick look to see if 2011 was the hottest year ever in stations near Perth. Looking along the Darling Ranges from Wandering in the south, through York and Northam to Badgingarra Research Station;
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– we see that there were often warmer years than 2011 in the past. So I assume that either the Perth Metro data is not being correctly compared to past years – or the “hottest year” in Perth that the BoM claims – is more of a local effect than the BoM hopes for.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology – odd distribution of daily temperature readings

While having a look at temperature data for Harvey in Western Australia, approx 140km south of Perth, (BoM station Number: 9812) – I noticed the daily maximum readings for 2011 had a large number of even-number readings – readings with no decimal point – integer I think is the term. Looking closer I noticed the readings to a decimal point seemed to involve a large number of .5’s. Anyway – on downloading these and counting using Excel I get the following very strange distribution.
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Does anybody know how widespread this is ? I will check the minimums when I have time.