Lets be real – after two cool summers – summer 2010-11 and summer 2011-12 – you can not blame the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for hyperventilating about the heatwaves sweeping Australia this summer. They have published SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 43 – INTERIM Extreme January heat update 14 January, 2013. If you go to Table 1 on page 4 – part screen shot below.

You see that on the 9th 12046 Leonora (at the Post Office) hit 49°C an all-time daily max record – the ONLY record-breaking site in Australia on the 9th. Now there is another nearby station 12241 Leonora Aero and in the screenshot below you can see the daily readings for the two sites.

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Note that the 1.6m & 1.8m solid fences have also increasingly boxed in the instruments. All part of micro-site effects contributing to creeping urbanization. All contrary to the international standards for weather instrument exposures. But no barrier to the BoM claiming another record.

The Sydney all time hot day record of 45.8 tops the 45.3 on 14 Jan 1939 but is in the centre of our largest urban heat island, so the number has to be seen in that perspective. We are fortunate to have a map of NSW from the Sydney Morning Herald preserved online with max temperatures recorded as at 11 Jan 1939.

A check on how widespread were all-time high temperatures around the Sydney region on the 18 Jan 2013 finds little support for the 18 Jan 2013 being a regional non-urban all-time record hot day. This Table summarises the regional comparisons. Comments follow the Table in the same order.

Sydney Airport was open from 1929 but daily data is only digitised from April 1939.
Richmond RAAF data – no record there – the all-time hot day is 47.8 on 14 Jan 1939 – max on the 18th was 46.4, a long way shy of 47.8.
Newcastle Nobbys Signal Station recorded 42 which equaled the all-time high on 23 Dec 1990. But Nobbys daily data is only available from 1957 – about 90 years of daily data is waiting in archives for this wealthy nation to enter to disk.
Jerrys Plains Post Office is an interesting case – a site little changed over a century, site open 1907-2012 yet daily data has only been digitised from 1957. But we luckily have a map from the Sydney Morning Herald for 14 Jan 1939 showing the heatwave across NSW on the 11th. This shows Jerrys Plain recorded 120°F or 48.9°C. That puts the temperatures quoted in the map on the Australian today in perspective. Nothing like the heat of Jan 1939.
The Scone Airport reading was topped earlier this months by 44.2 on 12 Jan 2013 – so obviously no all-time hot day in Scone. But we note the 11 Jan 1939 SMH map had 114F or 45.5 for Scone which would have been at Scone Philip Street 61069.
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Picton on the 1939 SMH map recorded 116F – 46.6 and the closest I can find to Picton today is Camden which hit 46.4 on Friday 18 Jan. So so hint of all-time hottest day there.
Cowra on the 1939 SMH map recorded 114F – 45.5, likely at the Cowra Post Office 63021. Cowra Airport on Friday recorded 44.8 but pre 1957 data is not digitised. But no hint of all-time hottest day there.
Canberra on the 1939 SMH map recorded 109F – 42.8, now the Airport 70014 did not commence readings until March 1939 so we do not know for sure where the 109F was measured. In Jan 1939 weather records were kept at Duntroon 70103, Canberra Forest 70015, Canberra Solar Observatory 70100 and Acton 70099. I would guess Acton is the source of the 109F on the SMH map. Canberra Airport on Friday recorded 42 but there was a 42.2 on 1 Feb 1968 so no hint of all-time hottest day in the National Capital.
The SMH map shows Jervis Bay near Nowra was not notably hot on 11 Jan 1939 and I can not locate pre 1955 data to check against the 45.4 on last Friday.
Bega has no pre 1965 daily data available so the 44.6 on last Friday is hard to assess.
Moruya was entered on the SMH map at 111F – 43.9 no doubt from the long term station Moruya Heads Pilot Station which only has dailies entered from 1957. On Friday last Moruya recorded 43.8, so once again the all-time hottest day record still stands.
Summing up it looks obvious that claims of Sydneys hottest day ever on 18 Jan 2013 are not supported by surrounding regional stations. Everything the Australian BoM promotes in our main stream media needs examining with a fine-tooth comb.

Contributed by William Kininmonth
The media has recently been reporting apparently unprecedented heat in Central Australia in the context of human-caused climate change. But is the current heat wave, with extended periods of days above 40°C at Alice Springs really unprecedented? To answer this question it is necessary to examine the data.
There are two sites at Alice Springs for which readily accessible temperature data are available. The first is the Alice Springs Post Office commencing in 1878 and ceasing in 1953; the other is the Alice Springs airport commencing in 1941 and currently the official observing site for Alice Springs. The sites are about 10 km apart; the difference in January monthly mean maximum temperatures between the sites during the period of common observations (1943-53) was 0.2°C with the airport being the warmer of the two.

For the airport site the January monthly mean maximum temperature for all years of record (1942-2012) is 36.2°C. The monthly mean January maximum temperature for all years (1879-1953) at the Post Office is 0.3°C cooler at 35.9°C. The impression is that, when combined, we have a relatively homogeneous maximum temperature record for Alice Springs that spans 134 years.

The airport site is the basis for conclusions being drawn that warming has occurred during the second half of the 20th century. The 95th percentile for the monthly mean maximum temperature data is 39.0°C; five years exceeded this value making the hottest Januarys 1994, 1999, 2004, 2006 and 2008, all in recent decades. The warmest year (2006 with a monthly mean of 40.0°C) started with 12 consecutive days above 40°C and with a subsequent 4 days above 40°C. To date, 2013 is up with these previously hot months having experienced the first 14 days with temperatures reaching 40°C or above. On these data alone one might conclude central Australia has been getting hotter.

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When we plot the monthly mean data for both sites an extended pattern of cooling followed by warming emerges. Temperatures are now only recovering to the values of the late 19th century.

It is unfortunate that the Australian government has not considered it sufficiently important to digitise and make publicly accessible all of the meteorological records from earlier years. The Bureau of Meteorology website has a range of important statistics about changing climate but most are generated from data subsequent to 1910 and based on a digitised selection of those recorded. As a consequence, statements based on the post-1910 data that suggest an ongoing warming trend are incomplete and likely misleading.

There is fragmentary accessible data (such as the above for Alice Springs) and much anecdotal evidence to suggest that during the late 19th century over central Australia, western New South Wales and South West Queensland the temperatures were as warm as or warmer than for recent decades. Without ready access to the existing earlier meteorological data a faulty picture of a warming Australian climate is portrayed in official statements. However, based on the Alice Springs data, a coming period of cooling cannot be discounted.

Sydney was forecast to have 39 degrees but enjoyed a day around 31 degrees. HT Tim Blair. A huge 8 degrees forecast error. Several other centres had unusual large errors too which are on this map.

Last month I noticed the BoM tended to over-egg forecast warmth.
On 27 Nov the BoM warned of a widespread, severe heatwave – turned out a short heatwave
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and from early December
Massive failure in BoM forecast temperatures Sydney and SE regions
Just to repeat what I have said earlier – I do not expect exact forecast accuracy – we know that is not possible – but if the BoM was not biased then errors would fall equally warm and cool.