Here we go again – another month and the BoM Outlooks seem to be getting worse – if that is possible.

Starting with rain – how do they get SW WA so EXACTLY WRONG ??

They have a win with the predicted wet in SE Qld-NE NSW – I will not quibble over the tiny green patch near Glen Innes which really should be in darker blue.

The predicted dry in Victoria & Tasmania turned out wet or average.

The predicted dry in Nth Qld turned out really wet.

Vast areas of the continent predicted to be so dry or average turned out REALLY REALLY WET. All in all – a waste of taxpayers money.

Maximum temperatures were correctly predicted in that same SE Qld-NE NSW zone where the rain Outlook had a win.

The West WA warmth was not predicted – a few points for the little win around Broome – then the predicted warmth in SA-Vic-Tas turned out to be non-existent – like the huge predicted hot patch across north Australia. Large areas of the continent centre were predicted average and warm but turned out anomalously cool to varying degrees – (added 4th Dec) – I would award a few points for the E-W trough shape in the Outlook which is partly copied by the two cool patches. IMHO – overall a pretty miserable and useless failure.

The Outlook for minimum temperatures (nights) suggest there must be a serious lack of reality in the BoM – how could you go with a model predicting such a hot result ? – in the face of months of failures. I think AGW has got to their collective judgment. Did nobody raise a hand to say that the real Australia was unlikely to have this extent and degree of hot nights ?

The wins in WA, SE Qld-E NSW, Top End and far nth Qld are outweighed by the negatives over the remaining large areas. I like the way the largest area with a 75% prediction to be above average – turned out to approximate the largest area of cool anomaly. (added 4th Dec) – note how in the minimum Outlook the contours have a broadly domed shape with the red hot peaks in the NT and Nth WA – while the actual weather results are exactly opposite with the major cool area representing a “topographic low” in the contouring. Another example of the BoM being EXACTLY wrong.

Can I remind readers of the peer reviewed paper from 2005;
“Verification and value of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology township seasonal rainfall forecasts in Australia, 1997-2005
AL Vizard, GA Anderson and DJ Buckley”

Then there is a 2008 paper looking at correlations with SOI

Yes – you have to pinch yourself but the shameless BoM did say this.

In 2009 there was an “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” (long term = 1 to 3 months) – by the Australian Parliament House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation. If you download the full pdf report – you will find on pdf page 35 of 120
2.46

BoM stated that existing seasonal forecasts for Australia appear to have reached their peak level of performance, and may even be declining in skill as the climate changes.

Taking another look through the Nov 2009 ISI Committee report “Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia” – I doubt that any good can come from this committee “Inquiry”.

I can now see that this process has come from within the Govt – through Senator the Hon Kim Carr, the Australian Government Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research – where of course the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) resides.

I have just been told by a House of Reps Clerk that – “Due to the change in Committee allocations, there is no longer a Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation.” I think this is code for – “…this Inquiry is now dead and buried”.

IMHO this so called “Inquiry” was always just a thinly veiled campaign to justify wringing more taxpayers money from Govt to fund BoM ongoing empire building.

Just in case anybody thinks temperature Outlooks are reliable – take a look at these disparate results for the last three months period. Also note that the BoM seems to have the overall calibration of their models wrong – the Outlooks are overall far too warm – which has been an error for years now. To scan through my BoM articles.
First maximum or daytime temperatures – huge areas of Australia turned out way cooler than normal – a fact which the BoM models utterly failed to predict.

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But what would you expect from an organization pushing the notion of man caused global warming. The Govt. must tell the BoM to stop wasting our taxes to produce this useless rubbish.

This time we show the huge divergence between the September quarter Rainfall Outlook – and the actual rainfall deciles for the same period.

Clearly the BoM have near zero predictive skills over 1 to 3 months out – any minor agreements are probably due to chance.

Yet our nations policy on carbon emissions will be built assuming the BoM and their supporting pro-IPCC orgs have predictive skills that compel our GreenLabor Govt to believe we will be seriously warmer over the coming century.

We are told by the BoM that September rainfall could be an all time record for Australia. Note this surreal article in the Sydney Morning Herald which starts by saying, “Global warming may have given Australia its wettest September in more than 100 years, but “extreme dry years” lie ahead, the Bureau of Meteorology says.”

This seems to me to be in contradiction of the facts as reported by weatherzone.com.au who say, “After their coldest winter in 13 years Sydney residents have just experienced their coldest September in five years..”

I have heard the BoM on TV news saying in effect, “September 2010 rain was an anomaly – we are really still in a dry spell and headed for dryer times”.

That seems to be the drift of their recent “Special Climate Statement 22” – I am suspicious of their Fig 3 in SCS22 and would like to see data back to pre 1900.

Time will tell if the BoM is right to say – “extreme dry years” lie ahead – but IMHO some sections of the BoM are stunningly incompetent and only mass sackings and a re-focus on their observing network would make the BoM relevant to Australian needs.

Every month the Australian BoM published a three month “Outlook” (prediction based on models) for rainfall and temperatures.

The Outlook press releases are often picked up by the media who quote them with reverence as though “written on tablets of stone”. I am only aware of one journalist who has had the temerity to draw attention to Outlook shortcomings – that is Andrew Bolt.

I have been critical of the hopeless inaccuracy of their results for years when compared to real world anomalies. I tend to comment more on failed rainfall Outlooks but this winter the temperature Outlooks were pathetic.

For a start – the entire Outlook map areas are predicted to be far too hot. This has been a common fault in BoM temperature Oulooks for a long time – look for yourself. What are these people smoking ?

• Maxtemp panels: The Outlook is for daytime temperatures to be higher than average across all Australia and yet the actual weather turned out to be cooler than average over much of the continent.
• Mintemp panels: Not quite as bad as maxtemp – but still overall far too warm – did not predict any green areas. They could not even get the overall shape right – the Outlook has east and west hot areas separated by a N/S axis. The weather was actually warmer in north – cooler in south – separate by an E/W axis.

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My main gripes about the mostly failing BoM Outlooks are;

• the BoM is advising Govt that future temperatures multi decades ahead will be warmer in line with the IPCC predictions, which Govt takes on board to justify their “great big new tax” carbon reduction policy – yet the BoM fails to have any predictive skill 90 DAYS ahead !!!
• the Dept churning out these defective Outlooks is simply a waste of our taxes, so I say fire the lot of them.