Category Archives: BoM Australia

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BoM Australia

Was the BoM asleep as volcanic ash shuts down flights ?

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At 8am Sunday 12 June we have ABC 24hr TV news reporting that New Zealand has cancelled some Trans-Tasman flights due to volcanic ash from the eruption in Chile. Not a word about ash affecting our skies – then at the end of the news a mention that Tasmanian flights are now affected – is the BoM waking up ?

Now this ash cloud has circled the globe eastwards thus passing near Australia before closing any NZ airspace.

Yet at 8am on the 12th there are no warnings on the Bureau of Meteorology website warnings page – and no mention of ash on their front page – despite the Cordon Caulle volcano in Chile eruption starting on 4th June.

Pretty much hopeless – yes we know it is a holiday weekend in SE Australia.

BoM Australia, Surface Record

Non-climatic anomalies in BoM temperature anomaly maps

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While compiling the Autumn Temperature Outlooks piece – I noticed what looked like an aberration in the contouring of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Autumn minimum temperature anomaly maps here – features that were repeated in the monthly minimum anomaly maps for March – April – May 2011.

I am talking about the area near the SW corner of the Northern Territory (NT)- a remote region with sparse data where two stations in particular seem to be at the centre of aberrant contouring over many months – and I have checked back as far as 2002 where the feature shows very obviously month after month.

The two stations concerned are; Walungurru – Number:15664 Opened: 2001 – and Giles Meteorological Office Number:13017 Opened: 1956. Of course the two stations are very different – Walungurru at a remote community – only has a few years of data, and of course averages over the 1961-1990 period would have to be estimated from neighbours and this site suggests no neighbours are close.

I have not found a photo of the instruments site or found exactly where BoM Station Walungurru Number:15664 is located other than Lat: 23.27° S, Lon: 129.38° E, Elevation: 454 m. – and when I clicked on a map icon for details I read – “The information for this station 015664 is not available now, but it may be available in the future”.

This image from GoogleEarth shows the layout at Walungurru / Kintore – the Lat-Lon plots just under the red “T”. It is a possible location seeing that public servants would attend the sewage/water works. I would expect to see a fenced enclosure.
Giles on the other hand is a purpose built – I expect state of the art – worlds best practice meteorological station.

This map of the Minimum Temperature Anomaly for Autumn 2011 has the approximate locations of Walungurru and Giles marked, the two places are ~220 km apart. We see in this map how the Walungurru data forms an anomalously warm pimple in the contouring while Giles is the opposite, forming a cool pit.
Autumn BoM min T anomaly map Australia 2001

This pattern is too common to be natural see my 2002-2007 animation of annual minimum anomalies where Walungurru is always prominent.

You get the point. So often anomalous – I think it stands out that the BoM map construction has incorporated a problem.

This could be caused if the BoM estimated Walungurru anomalies for the 1961-1990 standard reference period assuming too great a warming in the minimum temperature. That could explain why the Walungurru site so often produces a “warm pimple” in the contouring which because of the mathematics of the contouring produces a dipole effect “cool pit” in neighbouring Giles, in effect preventing the more reliable Giles data having its proper influence.

And I have only picked one small area of the map.

BoM Australia

BoM Autumn Outlooks mostly wrong again – nights predicted way too warm.

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Once again 3 months of real weather has shown the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Outlook predictions produced every month looking ahead three months – are mostly wrong.

In the first panel I compare the Maximum Temperature Outlook on the left with real world weather result to the right. The SE and Tasmania was predicted to have warm days but failed with cool anomalies ruling. The warmth in SW WA was unsuspected by the BoM. Also the focus of cool anomalies in the NW of Australia was also completely missed by the BoM model.

Obviously the predicted cool patch in Eastern Australia would score some points out of the result – but I think on balance a less than 50% score.
Autumn 2011 comparison

The Minimum Temperature result is far worse with the model predicting anomalously warm nights over vast areas of the continent – except for a cool patch in the NW.

As we see in the right hand map, in fact the vast majority of Australia enjoyed anomalously cool nights – exactly opposite to BoM model expectations – and the deepest cool anomaly was over Queensland, not the NW. I would estimate this score at well under 50%.
Model comparison 2011

Note the BoM media release about the record cold autumn, possibly a 94 year record since 1917.

BoM Australia, Jones et al, Surface Record

Canberra Airport scores a 54 year record for cold May mornings

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Today the 29th of May – Canberra Airport minimum temperature went under 0 degrees for the nineteenth day this month.

This exceeds the 18 days under zero which were recorded in May of 1959 and 1961. The record standing now is from 1957 which had 27 days with minimums under zero. Data at Canberra Airport station # 70014 starts in 1939.

I understand this is weather not climate but we all know how the BoM trumpets any warm record it can in the main stream media – so we will be interested to see what the BoM says after the month ends. And we must remember this cold record was set despite the ever increasing Canberra urban heat island.

BoM Australia, Surface Record

No, I am not making this up

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I saw where Chris Gilham over at the Anthony Watts site is talking about the record heat in Perth last summer and start to 2011.

Jan-March BoM 3 Month max T prediction 2011
Jan-March BoM 3 Month max T prediction 2011

 

 Had to drive home the disastrous BoM Maximum Temperature Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar. Could anything be so wrong ?

Note in the Yahoo news item how the BoM – completely without shame talk up their next Outlook !

I was curious if this record heat is as marked in rural areas around Perth – and looking at BoM monthly data for Jan to April in 1978 and 2011 – you can see the answer is – probably not.

From north to south, Pearce RAAF base was 0.05 degrees warmer in 2011 compared 1978, Northam was 0.125 warmer (round how you like), York was exactly unchanged and Karnet was 0.65 cooler in 2011.

I suggest people take 5 or 10min to investigate the data for regions they know.

What a shambles. No wonder Phil Jones mostly stuck to cities. Continue reading No, I am not making this up →

BoM Australia, News and Views

BoM Autumn temperature Outlooks not so hot

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The current cold snap and snow on the Alps etc has got the media chattering.

I have had people asking me – did the BoM predict this cold snap? Well – their daily weather forecasting saw it coming – but the three month Outlooks are on another time scale altogether for a cold snap that might last a few days or a week.

Anyway – I checked out the BoM Outlook predictions for Autumn, March-April-May – and tried to assess real world results to date.

This link shows you the two Outlook maps, one for maximum (day) and one for minimum (night) . Looking at the SE alpine area max – Melbourne to Sydney approx – Autumn days are predicted to be warmer and a prominent cool patch is predicted over SE Queensland. Minimums in the SE are predicted to be warmer again compared to the maximums.

After that I tried to assess real world results to date at this BoM page. Now making maps for the Maximum Anomaly – choose a “1 month” timespan – that should bring up the map for April then if you carefully click on the little grey “EARLIER” tab – you can flip the map back to March. It is clear that the SE maximum temperatures have been anomalously cool those two months. You can also change the time from “1 month” to “1 week” – and it is clear that early May days were were anomalously cooler in Victoria but just slightly warmer over the Alps.

On balance, I think the BoM Autumn maximum temperature Outlook will probably be proven too warm when all the May data is in.

To the Minimum Outlook for Autumn – just change your map selection to Minimum Anomaly – and follow the same procedure as above for the maximum.

  • The March map shows the SE was patchy but on average fairly neutral.
  • The April map shows the SE was cooler than normal.
  • The “1 week” map shows most of May to date has been notably cooler than normal in the SE.

So on balance the real world minimum temperatures in the SE have been cooler than normal – not very warm as the Autumn Outlook predicted. But we have a couple of weeks to go.

In a nutshell, the BoM needs a scorcher late May heatwave in the SE to bring Autumn temperatures to match their Outlook.

BoM Australia, IPCC, News and Views

Reasons to Oppose a Carbon Tax #4

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Dear Government Member of Parliament,

Just before the Copenhagen climate change conference in December 2009 (COP15) – an event known now as Climategate rattled the IPCC world as over a thousand emails and hundreds of other computer files were released, hacked or stolen from the University of East Anglia, Climate Research Unit (CRU).

Here is one summary – but a few minutes using Google will find many more. A Superstorm for Global Warming Research

Climategate was originally ignored by our mainstream media and even today is seldom reported – but Climategate still rolls on with revelations of poor IPCC science periodically making news to this day.

Where this affects your GreenLabor Government is that Climategate has played a part in convincing many Australian voters that there is something basically wrong with IPCC science that needs addressing before we rush to implement a Carbon Tax.

Now let me show you what a Westminster Labour MP has to say – Mr Graham Stringer MP for Blackley and Broughton in Manchester.
Continue reading Reasons to Oppose a Carbon Tax #4 →

BoM Australia, NZ Climate Science Coalition, Surface Record

Australian FOI law keeps secret the construction of New Zealand seven station temperature series

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In 2010 the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) with the assistance of four months help from the Australian BoM revised their seven station NZ temperature series to arrive at a national temperature trend from 1910. This is a much shorter period than the previous seven station series which was from before 1860.

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) started with an Official Information Act request on 21 December 2009 – attempting to obtain from NIWA details of the adjustments and construction of the seven station series from the many component data. These efforts did not succeed and I think in August 2010 they started court action against NIWA – which I understand is not over.

At the end of August 2010 NIWA sought the assistance of the Australian BoM to check their seven station series and in late December 2010 the revised NIWA seven station trend was published.

The NZ blog Climate Conversation Group has an article on 28th April “NIWA — show us the peer review!” – where they discuss the unsatisfactory state of affairs due to NIWA secretly adjusting raw station data to make their high warming seven station trend a trend that is unverifiable until NIWA releases details.

In February 2011 I lodged an FOI request with the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their work on the seven station series for NIWA. After a couple of extensions of time – on 6th May they emailed me the following pdf files which in a nutshell – tell me that all relevant documents and data are “fully exempt” from the FOI Act – and are thus still secret.

First the BoM reasons for refusal.

  • Some relevant sections of the FOI Act
  • Schedule of Documents – a very interesting list of 159 exempt documents comprising over 1600 pages plus 642 files – there may be some duplication.

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This schedule shows the “peer review” process started at the end of August 2010 and the list ends on Christmas Eve – pretty much four months.

I am hoping that people smarter than I might see ways to carry on the battle to get these papers and files released.

What can be so secret about the things publicly funded scientists and bureaucrats do to adjust common garden old weather records into a form that suits them? We are not talking about nuclear weapons secrets here.

There were two other pdf files

Added 7.30pm 7 May: Please note the anti-spam function is catching many good comments now and holding them for approval. So please be patient if your comment does not appear quickly.

BoM Australia, Water

BoM 3-month outlooks hopeless again

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The BoM 3 month forecast Outlooks improved for three months after Spring 2010 but have deteriorated again over the last two months.

Below I have six panels showing Outlook forecast map alongside realworld results map for rain and max & min temperatures.

Outlook period January to March 2011

Rainfall

Rain Outlook Jan-Mar2011

The Outlook has a western and eastern rain peak with a dry trough in between. In real life there was no sign of that – in fact the eastern area included some dry areas and there was no sign of the predicted large dry patch near Haddon Corner. IMHO this result would score under 50%.

Maximum Temperature

Max T Outlook Jan-Mar 2011

The huge hot patch predicted over the SE failed to happen.

The large predicted cool patch over WA was at best a 50% success. Overall I doubt it could score 50%.

Minimum Temperature

Min T Outlook Jan-Mar 2011

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Outlook period February to April 2011

Rainfall

Rain Outlook Feb-Apr 2011

The huge dry prediction over the SE never happened except for the small area in NE NSW. The SW WA dry patch was not predicted. It might score a 50%.

Maximum Temperature

Max T Outlook Feb-Apr 2011

It is clear enough no great success. Where they predicted notably hot in the SE, it was cool and in WA where it was warm, they had predicted cool. I doubt a score could top 50%.

Minimum Temperature

Min T Outlook Feb-Apr 2011

The huge cool anomaly predicted never happened – WA was a partial success but the SE and Cape York warm predictions failed to be anything other than near average.

Conclusion

Thinking of the entire group – are these expensive productions worth anything to the nation ?

BoM Australia

Spare a thought for the BoM – it has been a tough six months for Australian warmists

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The week of hot weather in Sydney early in February must have raised spirits in the BoM and other followers of the IPCC bandwagon. I would guess that this induced a hyper-excited state that lead to such a shoddy “SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27”. Let us remember that the last six months of maximum temperature (day-time) anomalies looks pretty much cool for the vast majority of the continent.
Six cool months in Oz
Then along came Cyclone Yasi which coincided with the one week NSW heat wave – January 30th and February 6th.
Here is the max anomaly map for week ending 8th Feb –
Max anomalies in Yasi week
note the extensive cool anomalies compared to what is left of the heat wave – I must remember to get a map that ends at 6th Feb.
And the last week available is pretty much cool too.
Max anomalies week ended 15 Feb