Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

Melbourne urban heat island could be attracting some rain

On the evening of Christmas Day a band of what the BoM called “super cell storms” swept through the Melbourne region from west to east. ABC Online story Wild storms lash Melbourne

I thought the neatly contoured pattern of rain that emerged after the event points to the possibility that in this event – the Melbourne urban heat island (UHI) might have attracted rain.
Rain over Melbourne UHI
Certainly the ranges to the east and north-east of Melbourne did not attract rain from these storm cells like the centre of the urban area did.

This radar image from 6pm is typical, showing the storms erupting in a band – constantly forming and dying.
There is nothing new about the idea of UHI affecting rain – just search – uhi attracts rain – and there is much to read. I remember seeing case histories from Texas over the years. But on a longer term the signals from events a few hours in duration get obscured by other rain patterns.

How is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology so dumb ?

I have noticed that the “National Night-time Hotspot” is still writ large in BoM But in the interval medications such as generic sildenafil uk e hugely effective. Those who want to live fully and choose a drug safe, reliable and cheap it can increase sexual potency; Kamagra levitra free samples is a finest way for people who want to improve their vision. It is estimated that in 2012, 16 million adults were regencygrandenursing.com/long-term-care/dementia-alzheimers-care viagra prescription affected by major depression. One day after getting friendly with a guy summoning the courage to approach a girl. viagra uk regencygrandenursing.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=36&Itemid=285 data minimum temperature data for the 12 months ended 30 Nov 11.
National Night-time Hotspot
They never learn.

Perth has a hot year – BoM totally lacking in perspective

The Murdoch press website PerthNow reports the Perth BoM pointing out that Perth has had another hot year. I also note how the BoM beats this up, “It’s an indication that Perth is warming and that is consistent with the whole of the South-West of WA and consistent with global temperatures as well,”.
Australia cool 12 months
Is the BoM so lacking in perspective that they can not bring themselves to mention the fact that ~70% of Australia looks to be having a cooler than average year using the BoM map data from 1 Dec 2010 to 30 Nov 2011. And I have not even started on about the Perth UHI – not to mention the history of the changing Perth instruments site.
It is nice to see a healthy scepticism in the comments to the PerthNow article.

Have parts of Victoria cooled since the 19C ?

Ian Bryce an Industrial Chemist with long experience in the tomato industry has sent me in this 5 page pdf paper commenting on raw temperature data from the Echuca – Benalla region in Victoria.
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I note that Ken Stewart has many graphic comparisons of station data from 1910 at his website. This photo from State Library online photo search shows the stevenson screen in the Echuca Post Office yard in 1944. No ideal exposure there.

BoM Spring 2011 temperature model Outlooks – complete incompetency year after year

First we note that both temperature models predict overall too warm – the minimum temperature model is worst – how does the BoM churn this rubbish out month after month without either improving results or scrapping the entire useless money-wasting Outlook project.

For maximum temperatures – the warm prediction in the tropics turned out to be cool. And the peak warmth in SE Sth Aust and Western Vic failed to eventuate.

For minimum temperatures – unlike the Outlook model – vast areas of Australia were cooler than average.

The predicted warmth in SE Sth Aust and Western Vic failed to show up in real world thermometers. And the small area predicted cool in Eastern Australia – that failed too – being mostly warmer than normal.
The BoM seem to be experts in making predictions that turn out exactly wrong.
Read more of my critiques of BoM poor performance.

Murray Darling Basin new water wasting plan

Last year I wrote “MDB water-buy-back scheme redundant after rains” after the Govt released their report proposing to waste 4,000GL per year in environmental flows.
Now they have a new scheme to waste 2,750GL PA – only slightly less bad.
The new scheme too should be shelved in the National Interest because both Note: For best results we strongly recommend that men address the condition of ED (erectile Dysfunction) can be sorted quickly by involving certain and quick use of medicines that requires applying wouroud.com cheapest levitra of medical measures and thus finding timely benefits. Combining them with alcohol, nicotine, caffeine and other stimulants may be risky. An egg can remain alive for 2 days, whereas sperms for 5 days, after which, it flows out levitra 20 mg www.wouroud.com/index.php?ln=en in the form of periods. They are an levitra prescription ideal one for controlling colds, digestion issues, stress and skin problems. of these plans were produced by people who are true believers in IPCC Global Warming and Climate Change. So these schemes are tainted with IPCC rubbish science and failed model predictions from the outset.
Let us just put the latest effort in the bottom drawer where it belongs – and concentrate on gathering and promulgating reliable data about the MDB.

Climategate 2.0 breaks – 2 years after the main event

Amazing – get your own download here – looks to be 5000 emails plus other files. Looking forward to hearing about any interesting mails you find.
I have been told of this gem from the Jo Nova site.
<601> “David Jones”
subject: RE: African stations used in HadCRU global data set
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Thanks Phil for the input and paper. I will get back to you with comments next week. Fortunately in Australia our sceptics are rather scientifically incompetent. It is also easier for us in that we have a policy of providing any complainer with every single station observation when they question our data (this usually snows them) and the Australian data is in pretty good order anyway

No doubt there will be huge discussion on these 5000 odd emails for months to come around the blogs – links on right.

FOI update – The BoM has no record of contacts by NIWA before 16 August 2010

Last May I reported on my February FOI request to the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their peer review of the seven station series for NIWA. See my article – “Australian FOI law keeps secret the construction of New Zealand seven station temperature series”. Note that the BoM Schedule of Documents supplied to me commences on 30 August 2010.

The Kiwis brought to my attention the following question and answer in the New Zealand Parliament 18 March 2010.
Beehive question

This indicates that NIWA had contacted – was corresponding with the BoM six-months PRIOR to the 30 August 2010 commencing date for documents they found pursuant to my February 2011 FOI request.

On 31 May I emailed the BoM and drew their attention to this six-month discrepancy. Twenty weeks later and the BoM has just sent me an addendum to their original Schedule of Documents – see link above.

This Addendum lists 14 more NIWA/BoM documents (all exempt) – but dated from 16 August 1 September 2010. So it looks to me that the BoM are saying – “…we have no record of NIWA contacting us prior to 16 August 2010.”

Queensland Flood Commission says to lower Wivenhoe Dam levels to 75% on basis September forecasts

This of course assumes that a reliable forecast exists – on which to base this proposed very serious action. The only forecasts I am aware of are the BoM Rainfall Outlooks which are published usually after the middle of the month and cover the next 3 calendar months.

I have just checked the BoM September Rainfall Outlooks for the 11 years of their archive, for the Brisbane catchment area. I make the score 5 wins, 5 failures and 1 too close to call.

If valuable dam water is to be released from say October onwards – on the basis of useless BoM 3 month forecasts – then it is inevitable there will be a considerable risk that this will be in vain.

But it would help to keep upward pressure on the price of water.

From mid 2010 I have several articles critical of BoM Outlooks:

BoM incompetence again – for the 5th month in a row

Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#2 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence

#3 Ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month

#4 Temperature too – not just rain – ongoing BoM utter incompetence – month after month after month

#5 BoM Spring Outlooks – rain and temperature – more hopelessly wrong models

Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate

Just saw this news at ABC online. “Pirates disrupting climate change research”

Note at the end – “….so right now half the tropical Indian Ocean is out of bounds for us so it’s a big problem, both for weather forecasting but also for that longer term climate seasonal forecasting.”

Continue reading Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate