Category Archives: BoM Australia

Weather Bureau for Australia

BoM claims record Perth heatwaves – numbers suggest not so simple

IMHO the BoM in Perth is gung-ho when it comes to claiming any records to do with warming. So I have taken a few hours to compare this summer to March heatwaves with those from 1977/78 – in each case comparing the Perth station with, sites at Perth Airport, Pearce RAAF, York and Merredin.
Taking the BoM definition of a Perth heatwave as 3 days over 35C.
I assembled daily max T for the months Dec to Mar incl for 1977/78 and 2011/12 – for the above sites. Note in 1977/78 Perth data was recorded at “9034 Perth Regional Office”, York was “10144 York Post Office” – the others were “9021 Perth Airport”, “9053 Pearce RAAF” and “10092 Merredin”.
In 2001/12 Perth data was recorded at “9225 Perth Metro”, Perth airport, Pearce and Merredin were unchanged and York was at “10311 York”.
I condensed my data down to only those days included in the “official” Perth heatwaves for the two periods and there are 27 Perth heatwaves days in both 1977/78 and 2011/12 Dec to 11 March so far – note Pearce RAAF had missed readings on days in 1977/78 and Merredin had 2 missing. In 2011/12 Pearce had 1 missing day.
Next I averaged the temperatures for these various places for the 27 day period of the Perth heatwaves.
Note in the ABC article linked above; how the BoM make big of the fact that in 2011/12 Perth has 8 heatwaves while only 7 were recorded in 1977/78.
In fact in 1977/78 there were only four 3 day events but there were two 4 day events and a seven day event.
While in 2011/12 so far we have had six 3 day events and one each of 4 and 5 days. So heatwaves tended to be longer in 1977/78 – a point the BoM did not tell the pliant ABC.

The other interesting point that emerged was that while Perth Regional Office was slightly cooler in 1977/78 than Perth Metro was in 2011/12. All the other sites were warmer in 1977/78 compared to 2011/12.
This supports my contention that the BoM is not correct in assuming that Perth Metro is equivalent to Perth Regional Office. The BoM is also not correct in always ignoring the fact that Perth has a growing urban heat island (UHI).
The BoM should take far more care reporting pro-IPCC conclusions hastily drawn from their imperfect data.

Wet week in southern New South Wales 28 Feb-5 Mar 2012 – no long term rain records at larger towns in SE.

Around the 28 Feb the BoM forecast several days of significant rain – as per this forecast map. The Canberra Times headlined – Bureau warns of regional flooding.
No doubt the BoM forecast was pretty good as a major wet week ensued – but there were few rain records across major centres in the SE of NSW for the 7 days 28 Feb – 5 Mar as the statistics from BoM stations will show – most of these centres had some flooding in the news. Note that the BoM publishes data from at least 4900 NSW stations, many of which are closed or have gaps – so hunting down rainfall statistics needs some patience.

70217 Cooma Airport AWS had 156.2mm which is easily exceeded by several historic 7 day episodes at 70023 Cooma Lambie St.; March 1950 – 182mm, July 1922 – 169mm, Jan 1934 – 196mm, June 1891 – 158mm, Feb 1873 – 170mm.

70014 Canberra Airport had 198.6mm which was exceeded by this episode in
March 1950 – 247.9mm in 6 days – there was also March 1989 – 190mm in 5 days incl 15 Mar @ 126mm.

70330 Goulburn Airport AWS had 155.6mm but only has records from 1994. So looking for other stations near or in Goulburn we find plenty that have had heavier 7 day totals.
70037 Goulburn commenced 1857; Mar 1914 – 186mm, Feb 1860 – 207mm
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70263 Goulburn TAFE commenced 1971; Jan 2006 – 185mm, Aug 1974 – 203mm

63291 Bathurst Airport AWS had 140mm but 63004 Bathurst Gaol with data from 1858 records the following 7 day totals; Jan 1976 – 164mm, Feb 1971 – 190mm, March 1950 – 166mm and March 1926 – 153mm.

63231 Orange Airport AWS recorded 155mm and even data from that station showed these previous higher 7 day totals; Feb 1992 – 250mm, Apr 1990 – 169mm, Jan 1978 – 193mm, Jan 1976 – 199mm, Feb 1973 – 195mm. Orange Post Office has a dozen more heavier 7 day totals back to 1878 – but enough for now.

65111 Cowra Airport AWS recorded 165.2mm; while 63021 Cowra PO with data from 1885-1965 recorded the following; Feb 1992 – 212mm, Jan 1958 – 157mm, Jun 1925 – 195mm, Dec 1886 – 219mm.

So, the overall impression at those towns was of a very wet week that rolls along every few decades – but far from record breaking. The BoM has put out a “Special Climate Statement 39” – Exceptional heavy rainfall across southeast Australia, which includes some dodgy claims of less-than-robust records which I will comment on soon.

BoM summer outlooks – hopeless again

This summer has been cooler than average across vast areas of Australia. Which has been a surprise to the BoM.
The BoM 3 month summer temperature outlooks were issued in November – actual daytime temperature anomalies were cooler over vastly more area of Australia than the BoM predicted. The actual warmth along the Perth to Pilbara coast and Sth Aust & Vic turned out to be miniscule compared to the BoM predictions. Ditto for the Far North which turned out near average. The BoM scores some marks for their Eastern and Central Australian cool predict but all of their hot predictions turned out cooler and smaller.

The minimum (nightime) result is even worse than for the daytime – readers can see the actual sea of green for themselves.

And of course there is the National Nightime Hotspot again (marked N), evidence of a severe flaw in the BoM data that they seem incapable of understanding. Note the BoM has hardly commented on our cool summer – La Nina they would say.

2011: Hottest year on record for Perth Metro – says the Bureau of Meteorology – not so in the Darling Ranges

The BoM went public in December 2011 saying it was the hottest year ever in Perth. This press was followed up with their page spelling out the BoM case. I noticed the BoM said little about any stations except Perth Metro – it is well known around climate people that the Perth recording site has moved a few times since the late 19th Century. I have had a quick look to see if 2011 was the hottest year ever in stations near Perth. Looking along the Darling Ranges from Wandering in the south, through York and Northam to Badgingarra Research Station;
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– we see that there were often warmer years than 2011 in the past. So I assume that either the Perth Metro data is not being correctly compared to past years – or the “hottest year” in Perth that the BoM claims – is more of a local effect than the BoM hopes for.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology – odd distribution of daily temperature readings

While having a look at temperature data for Harvey in Western Australia, approx 140km south of Perth, (BoM station Number: 9812) – I noticed the daily maximum readings for 2011 had a large number of even-number readings – readings with no decimal point – integer I think is the term. Looking closer I noticed the readings to a decimal point seemed to involve a large number of .5’s. Anyway – on downloading these and counting using Excel I get the following very strange distribution.
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Does anybody know how widespread this is ? I will check the minimums when I have time.

Huge area of West Australia enjoys cool days

I have noticed how a large area of inland WA has been enjoying cool days lately – starting about 8 Jan –

this map of the maximum anomaly is from the 14th.
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New 5 second animation of the 20 maps from 29 Dec 2011 to 17 Jan 2012 – shows clearly how the much ballyhooed “Great New Year Heat Wave of 2012” was insignificant compared to this cool event – yet you will not hear about the week long cool event from the BoM or the MSM.
Post on the GNYHWo2012 “Great New Year Heat Wave of 2012”. Clearly the dark blue -12 degrees anomaly affects a much greater area than did the +12 degrees anomaly earlier in Jan – and for longer. Has anybody seen/heard a reference to this in the media ?

All time record cold January morning in Canberra

That is since 1940 – Canberra Airport data started in 1939 – I can not find daily data from the Canberra city area before that – can anybody help ?
Note that this media item “Cold snap sets new record low temperatures”
skilfully does not specify it is an “all time” record for Canberra – readers have to draw that conclusion – and it is not mentioned that the urban heat island has been increasing for decades.
In the case of Goulburn – recording has changed to the Airport – I can not find any old daily data at this BoM site. There is monthly data for Goulburn going back to 1860 but presumably the daily data has not been entered to disk – not that the public are allowed to see anyway.

Lies and misinformation on ABC news about heat waves

After a cool 2011 and an even cooler December – the BoM and their trusted main stream media (MSM) have been hyperventilating with excitement over a few warm days to start 2012 in SE Australia. It seems the BoM can not help exaggerating.
I noticed the ABC article “Hot weather hits Canberra” – saying “The national capital sweltered today under a second day of hot weather over 34 degrees.”
But it was not so in the real world at Canberra airport
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– where only one day hit 34.
I worry that I might develop into a nitpicker – so I took a quick look at news for Melbourne. Sure enough I quickly found – “Heatwave subsides with cool change” – where they mention, “…after the three-day heatwave.”
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– and note the max reading was at Melbourne Regional Office – core of the Melbourne urban heat island.
Added 19 Jan; New animation of the max anomaly maps from 29 Dec 2011 to 17 Jan 2012 showing how insignificant the “Great New Year Heat Wave of 2012” was compared to the later WA cool patch – 7-15 Jan.
You can check daily maps of Mean Maximum and Maximum Anomaly and see for yourself how the heat originated in SA – spread to Victoria on the 1st of January – peaked in Vic on the 2nd and decayed to the north on the 3rd.
It all goes to show – never believe anything you read without some cross-checking – and I think it is fair to say that any statements originating from the BoM about heat deserve the closest scrutiny.

BoM predicted heat late 2011 – another BoM utter failure

On with our series exposing, inaccurate Australian Bureau of Meteorology Outlook predictions for max and min temperature – this time for October to December 2011. The comparison between the Outlook and real world result is stark.
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The BoM promised scorching daytime heat in a variety of places – note that amazingly – NO areas would be cooler than normal. The result showed we experienced cooler than normal days over the vast majority of Australia and mostly near normal days over the rest.
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These BoM models are not worth a cup full of warm spit – yet the entire effort costs us $millions every year.