Category Archives: Jones et al

BoM Australia, Surface Record

Climate Council (Australia) says Autumn 2014 is abnormal

12 Comments

Remember the Climate Council was birthed by ex staffers from the Climate Commission which was disbanded by the Australian LNP Government elected Sept 2013. Climate Council Seasonal Update: Abnormal Autumn – Looks to me as if their cherry picked warm period 8 to 26 May is borrowed from the BoM – Special Climate Statement 49 – an exceptionally prolonged autumn warm spell over much of Australia
Here is a time series chart of Australian Autumn mean temperature anomalies. Not sure what is abnormal. Remember these time series charts are built from ACORN SAT data.

Click to play animation of nine previous warm autumns.

Sydney is the only prominent site I can see that had an all time record warm Autumn. Birdsville qualifies too. Any other candidates?

BoM Australia, Surface Record

Hottest May day prediction for Sydney crashed in a heap – while warmest May on record looks restricted to centre of Sydney

6 Comments

The media have been hyperventilating over the Indian Summer in Sydney – but this story took the cake – Sydney to register hottest May day in 95 years with temps tipped to hit 28C as May ‘heatwave’ lingers –
In fact Wednesday the 27th saw Sydney reach 24°C – a 4 degree fail for the BoM.
OK forecasting is fraught.
SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL) (066062) looks headed for an all time record warm May – the previous record was 1958 – but how widespread is this record warmth.
This table shows that this month Sydney Airport is about equal with May 1958 but at Richmond RAAF this month is well down on May 1958.

Can anybody find another Sydney site which has this month warmer than May 1958? Two sites to check – BoM – AWN

GISS, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

GISS urban adjusted version for Melbourne Australia from year 2000 compared with 2014 adjusted version

2 Comments

Had to cable up some old HDD’s and made a few interesting discoveries – GISS around 2000 made an attempt to adjust for UHI contamination using a long tapered adjustment – which in retrospect was probably one of the better attempts by any of the big IPCC climate groups to deal with UHI.

Most of them do nothing. I am looking for some data files showing the tapered UHI adjustment.

BoM Australia, Surface Record

Claims of record warm days in May lack scientific balance – Melbourne and the 11 days consecutive over 20°C

3 Comments

SMH news item quoting the BoM – Melbourne’s record warm spell may stretch into June – no mention of urban heat island (UHI) site issues at Melbourne Regional Office 86071. Recently the BoM commenced weather recordings at Olympic Park station#86338 which will eventually replace the highly urbanized current site Melbourne Regional Office station#86071
Yes that is where they are claiming a warmth record – in the face of 150 odd years of urbanization feeding warmth into weather data.

Ignoring that the new site at Olympic Park 86338 which is still central to a huge urban heat island but is slightly less UHI affected than 86071 – only saw 9 days over 20 up to the 21st May.

Thanks to Geoff Sherrington who sent in this gem of Nelsonian telescope use.- Geoff also mentioned these 1904 & 1866 warm spells that except for minor gaps show that weather experienced by Melburnians has changed little in 149 years.

GISS, Surface Record

NOAA/NCDC create warming adjustments in GHCN V3 long term Australian weather records; Alice Springs, Adelaide, Broken Hill and Willis Island

11 Comments

All of these animations are pairing GHCNv2 (after combining sources at same location) with the GHCNv3 (after GISS homogeneity adjustment) – there are many more.

Surface Record

Experiment measuring pre-dawn urban air temperature in north Canberra compared to BoM Canberra Airport

3 Comments

Since 9th Feb I have been noting down the simultaneous temperature of pre-dawn air coming in my front door compared to Canberra Airport ~13km away as a crow might fly.

We are not that far from Hall, near farmland to the west and about 100m higher than the airport so in theory we might expect to be 0.64°C cooler. The front door faces east into a suburb and it so happens that most mornings a noticeable breeze comes in the door when opened.

I expected the vagaries of weather would produce a few days when we were cooler than the airport. It turned out that only on one day 16 March were we 0.2 cooler than the airport and that morning was blowing a warmish nor-wester at 16C – the wrong direction for the front door so I took a reading in the yard in full breeze.

Anyway – here is the chart, of suburban air temperature read in the dark minus the Canberra Airport reading off the www. Days of greater contrast tend to have clear skies – rainy days tend to show the least contrast. Average contrast over the 75 days – 3.7 degrees.

I wonder if readers ever try similar comparisons in their local region.

Note my thermometer is a little battery powered “thermistor” gadget with a metre of wire, digital readout to 0.1deg – which I had calibrated informally against two liquid in glass thermometers.

ACORN SAT, BoM Australia, Surface Record

Sydney temperature history – BoM raw data compared to ACORN adjusted data

9 Comments

Here is Sydney raw max & min annual temperature history –

This shows raw compared to ACORN also annual – you easily see where the effective adjustments are concentrated.

From 1 Jan 1983 on to present day there are no adjustments made to the daily max data. There are however some days when the raw reading is discarded to leave a data gap in ACORN. In the case of minimums (nightime) the data has no ACORN adjustments from 1 Jan 1964 to present day. But like the max – ACORN finds quite a few minimums not fit for ACORN.
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Daily ACORN min minus raw min

To me it looks like machine driven stroking & tweaking.

ACORN SAT, BoM Australia, Surface Record

BoM says re Hobart on 1st April 2014, “..31 degrees Celsius was the hottest April day since records started in 1881.”, but history shows sites nearby experienced several relatively hotter events

28 Comments

The ABC reports – Records melt as Hobart swelters through hottest April day in 132 years –
Checking hottest April day statistics at this BoM page – just amend the station number in the URL.
Checking daily data a month at a time in District 94 on Australian Weather News AWN – April 2005 at AWN shows the two hot days on 1st & 2nd.

The article could have been more balanced by pointing out other hotter events in the very small and variable District 94. IMHO Tuesday was just another early April hot day where the peak max happened to fall at central Hobart. I wonder if we should expect more balance from our scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology.
Make anomaly maps for any day you choose at this BoM page.

Surface Record

NOAA speaks with various maps to show February temperatures over the USA 48

7 Comments

I saw this issue at Anthony Watts which was from Joe D’Aleo – commenting on the less than stellar NOAA map. Which several commenters seemed to distrust.

Curiosity got me looking in NOAA for the original – which I did not find – but I found this map below which gives a more balanced view of February temperature anomalies if you examine it.
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For example the orange warmest division is only plus 7.2 while there are several very cool divisions dark blue with anomalies as cool as minus 12. The USA 48 had a cool anomaly for Feb 2014. Can anybody explain why the Ranks map should be so different to the Anomalies map?