Just saw this news at ABC online. “Pirates disrupting climate change research”
Note at the end – “….so right now half the tropical Indian Ocean is out of bounds for us so it’s a big problem, both for weather forecasting but also for that longer term climate seasonal forecasting.”
Continue reading Somali pirates could be causing BoM seasonal Outlooks to be inaccurate
While compiling the Autumn Temperature Outlooks piece – I noticed what looked like an aberration in the contouring of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Autumn minimum temperature anomaly maps here – features that were repeated in the monthly minimum anomaly maps for March – April – May 2011.
I am talking about the area near the SW corner of the Northern Territory (NT)- a remote region with sparse data where two stations in particular seem to be at the centre of aberrant contouring over many months – and I have checked back as far as 2002 where the feature shows very obviously month after month.
The two stations concerned are; Walungurru – Number:15664 Opened: 2001 – and Giles Meteorological Office Number:13017 Opened: 1956. Of course the two stations are very different – Walungurru at a remote community – only has a few years of data, and of course averages over the 1961-1990 period would have to be estimated from neighbours and this site suggests no neighbours are close.
I have not found a photo of the instruments site or found exactly where BoM Station Walungurru Number:15664 is located other than Lat: 23.27° S, Lon: 129.38° E, Elevation: 454 m. – and when I clicked on a map icon for details I read – “The information for this station 015664 is not available now, but it may be available in the future”.
This image from GoogleEarth shows the layout at Walungurru / Kintore – the Lat-Lon plots just under the red “T”. It is a possible location seeing that public servants would attend the sewage/water works. I would expect to see a fenced enclosure.
Giles on the other hand is a purpose built – I expect state of the art – worlds best practice meteorological station.
This map of the Minimum Temperature Anomaly for Autumn 2011 has the approximate locations of Walungurru and Giles marked, the two places are ~220 km apart. We see in this map how the Walungurru data forms an anomalously warm pimple in the contouring while Giles is the opposite, forming a cool pit.
This pattern is too common to be natural see my 2002-2007 animation of annual minimum anomalies where Walungurru is always prominent.
You get the point. So often anomalous – I think it stands out that the BoM map construction has incorporated a problem.
This could be caused if the BoM estimated Walungurru anomalies for the 1961-1990 standard reference period assuming too great a warming in the minimum temperature. That could explain why the Walungurru site so often produces a “warm pimple” in the contouring which because of the mathematics of the contouring produces a dipole effect “cool pit” in neighbouring Giles, in effect preventing the more reliable Giles data having its proper influence.
And I have only picked one small area of the map.
Today the 29th of May – Canberra Airport minimum temperature went under 0 degrees for the nineteenth day this month.
This exceeds the 18 days under zero which were recorded in May of 1959 and 1961. The record standing now is from 1957 which had 27 days with minimums under zero. Data at Canberra Airport station # 70014 starts in 1939.
I understand this is weather not climate but we all know how the BoM trumpets any warm record it can in the main stream media – so we will be interested to see what the BoM says after the month ends. And we must remember this cold record was set despite the ever increasing Canberra urban heat island.
I saw where Chris Gilham over at the Anthony Watts site is talking about the record heat in Perth last summer and start to 2011.
Had to drive home the disastrous BoM Maximum Temperature Outlook for Jan-Feb-Mar. Could anything be so wrong ?
Note in the Yahoo news item how the BoM – completely without shame talk up their next Outlook !
I was curious if this record heat is as marked in rural areas around Perth – and looking at BoM monthly data for Jan to April in 1978 and 2011 – you can see the answer is – probably not.
From north to south, Pearce RAAF base was 0.05 degrees warmer in 2011 compared 1978, Northam was 0.125 warmer (round how you like), York was exactly unchanged and Karnet was 0.65 cooler in 2011.
I suggest people take 5 or 10min to investigate the data for regions they know.
What a shambles. No wonder Phil Jones mostly stuck to cities. Continue reading No, I am not making this up
In 2010 the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) with the assistance of four months help from the Australian BoM revised their seven station NZ temperature series to arrive at a national temperature trend from 1910. This is a much shorter period than the previous seven station series which was from before 1860.
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) started with an Official Information Act request on 21 December 2009 – attempting to obtain from NIWA details of the adjustments and construction of the seven station series from the many component data. These efforts did not succeed and I think in August 2010 they started court action against NIWA – which I understand is not over.
At the end of August 2010 NIWA sought the assistance of the Australian BoM to check their seven station series and in late December 2010 the revised NIWA seven station trend was published.
The NZ blog Climate Conversation Group has an article on 28th April “NIWA — show us the peer review!” – where they discuss the unsatisfactory state of affairs due to NIWA secretly adjusting raw station data to make their high warming seven station trend a trend that is unverifiable until NIWA releases details.
In February 2011 I lodged an FOI request with the BoM to release to me all documents and data connected with their work on the seven station series for NIWA. After a couple of extensions of time – on 6th May they emailed me the following pdf files which in a nutshell – tell me that all relevant documents and data are “fully exempt” from the FOI Act – and are thus still secret.
First the BoM reasons for refusal.
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This schedule shows the “peer review” process started at the end of August 2010 and the list ends on Christmas Eve – pretty much four months.
I am hoping that people smarter than I might see ways to carry on the battle to get these papers and files released.
What can be so secret about the things publicly funded scientists and bureaucrats do to adjust common garden old weather records into a form that suits them? We are not talking about nuclear weapons secrets here.
There were two other pdf files
Added 7.30pm 7 May: Please note the anti-spam function is catching many good comments now and holding them for approval. So please be patient if your comment does not appear quickly.
Climate change : science and solutions for Australia
(p 2, top)
"A network of standard thermometers and standard thermometer shelters was progressively introduced throughout Australia between 1890 and 1910."
This is the first time I have ever seen 1890 quoted in this context. The BoM position is stated on page 4 of their 8 Feb 2011 "SPECIAL CLIMATE STATEMENT 27"
“An exceptional summer heatwave in greater Sydney and the Hunter Valley”
where they say
"Maximum temperatures prior to 1910 have not been considered for inclusion unless they are known to have been measured in a standard Stevenson screen or similar."
I have never seen the BoM mention a date before 1907 or 1908 and I am not aware the BoM produces a trend starting prior to 1910.
My own research suggests that the Stevenson screen was progressively introduced from about 1882 – obviously spreading out from high order stations.
There is much information from searchable newspaper archives and archived photographs coming online in recent years which provide evidence for the use of the Stevenson screen from the 1890’s which undermines the BoM position. A few examples are given here.
It is amazing that in the 14 pages – with several superfluous propaganda photos – the CSIRO paper shows no graphic of the Australian long term temperature trend as defined by the BoM – which we note originates in 1910 – and be aware these BoM data have been stroked and tweaked to show more warming than the raw data.
My graphic "Average of 25 Regional and Remote Stations" shows that Australian temperatures in the late 19th Century were similar to those in recent decades which are quoted by global warming alarmists as evidence for anthropogenic warming.
No wonder the BoM, other public service scientists and global warming alarmists do not chart Australian temperature trends prior to 1910 – yet note how the BoM trend is warped cooler from 1910-1940’s. There is a lot of propaganda out there.
The CSIRO include the page 3 Fig 1.1 which I am sure is not peer reviewed and only runs from 1960. Why do they talk trends from 1910-2009 on one page then can only find data from 1960 ?
RAINFALL
We must remember that the Eastern Australian big wet of second half 2010 and early 2011 caught the CSIRO by surprise. See my blog article from October 2010, Australian wheat crop history does not shout “worst drought ever”
Bottom of page 5 –
"It is notable that, despite heavy rainfall in Victoria during the second half of the year, Melbourne recorded its 14th consecutive year of below average inflows to water storages during 2010."
Wrong CSIRO – there was nothing notable about that – simply that in the swings and roundabouts of rainfall – the Thomson dam catchment got less rain than vast areas of Victoria to the north and west.
To wrap up – can I just point out two sections on Australian rainfall that seem to me to be contradictory.
First – bottom page 4 –
"Similarly, vast movements of oceanic heat and atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are associated with periodic droughts (El Niño) and, alternatively, heavy rainfall (La Niña) across the eastern and southern parts of the continent.
Sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Southern oceans, as well as atmospheric circulation around the Southern Hemisphere as a whole, also make strong contributions to Australian rainfall variability."
Then on the bottom of page 7-
"There is no unequivocal evidence that long-term changes in the Indian and Pacific oceans, such as changes to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, have had a major influence on rainfall trends over Australia, despite studies that have identified possible changes over the 20th century in these large features of climate variability."
Page 7 – that’s enough wading through CSIRO-speak for me.
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I am curious if anybody is holding out hope that this “Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study” has a hope in hell of producing anything worthwhile.
I am posting this to give readers a space to comment on what the Berkeley team are telling us about what they are doing.
I suggest interested people read what is available online, it will not take you long.
I note they seem to be a post-Climategate formation and I also see on the team at least one prominent pre-Climategate “standard IPCC warmist” now very active re-inventing as a “person of reason” in the middle of the current debate.
Guest article by Pat Frank
We’ve all read the diagnosis, for example here, that the global climate has suffered “unprecedented warming,” since about 1900. The accepted increase across the 20th century is 0.7 (+/-)0.2 C. As an experimental chemist, I always wondered at that “(+/-)0.2 C.” In my experience, it seemed an awfully narrow uncertainty, given the exigencies of instruments and outdoor measurements.
When I read the literature, going right back to such basics as Phil Jones’ early papers [1, 2], I found no mention of instrumental uncertainty in their discussions of sources of error. Continue reading Do We Really Know Earth’s Temperature?
I have been reading the 169 page NIWA pdf – “Report on the Review of NIWA’s “Seven-Station” Temperature Series December 2010” – downloaded here
I have not yet found the BoM review – only the one page letter from the BoM – see pdf page 13 in the above.
I draw readers attention to the excellent little GISS diagrams which perfectly illustrate the warming effect of adjusting out the multitude of step changes which are common throughout all temperature data as thousands of recording sites have been moved outwards in their respective urban areas.
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – before adjustment.
GISS illustrating typical urban T data with a step due to outward site move – after adjustment – now with UHI warmed trend built in.
Reading their 169 page pdf report above – it is crystal clear that NIWA do exactly this – repeatedly adjusting out step changes – all through their seven station series – in this way NIWA cement UHI warming in their NZ 7 station century long adjusted trend.
PS: I had a little post on this in 2006
