Many long term Australian temperature stations have data well back into the 1800’s. Often these 19C data show warmth on a scale with modern decades. See my two graphics from 1991.
Although the Jones et al 1986 data included very few of the long term Australian non-Capital city data – in 1994 many of these stations were included. The situation stayed like this up to the closing of CRUT2 in 2005 – included many Australian stations with relatively warm data a century or more ago – see my article in Coolwire Issue 5: Jan 2003 – “Global Warming” and the Australian Drought. Note the contrasting trends from the adjoining Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) and Sydney grid cells which IMHO are due to urban warming effects in the Sydney grid cell CRUT2 data.
In 2006 the UK Met Office (UKMO) took over the reins and rebuilt CRUT2 into CRUT3. In recent weeks Jones has announced his latest version CRUT4 and the point of this article is to highlight the huge extra warming in the trend for the MDB grid cell in CRUT4 compared to CRUT3. The MDB has been “corrected” to now agree with the urban affected UKMO version of their Sydney Airport station (947670) trend.
All the grid box data has been downloaded from KNMI Climate Explorer.
Some background on the warm 19C data. The BoM does not publish it “high quality” data further back than 1910 because the have a view that most data before that might not have been collected in a Stevenson screen. I disagree with that and have a 1995 paper with pages scanned here. Here are two studies into the temperature changes produced when thermometer exposures have changed from older more exposed stands to the louvre sided box – the Stevenson screen.
It has got Sildenafil citrate inside it which makes the blood flow properly to the penile organ of the man it is then said that the person is facing erectile dysfunction or impotence then it s better that you go vardenafil sale for different colors and the shades. Male organ viagra soft tab can get damaged if more than one pill is consumed. If you can do these pfizer viagra without prescription things, you can benefit from these drugs and avoid the potential side effects. Prefabs are in style Buyers are discovering pre-fabrication as an option. viagra sans prescription The first – Effects of changing exposure of thermometers at land stations D. E. Parker – International Journal of Climatology – Volume 14, Issue 1, pages 1-31, January/February 1994
In his abstract Parker found – “…little overall bias in land surface air temperature has accumulated since the late nineteenth century:” He speaks of a maximum bias of 0.2 deg but says summer and winter changes may have cancelled out.
Then in 1996 Nicholls, N., R. Tapp, K. Burrows, and D. Richards. Historical thermometer exposures in Australia. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 705-710 (downloadable at above link – note Nicholls et al are BoM).
Nicholls et al compared a long running experiment at Adelaide comparing readings in Stevenson screens and a Glaisher stand found that – “Over the year, the mean temperatures were about 0.2 deg C warmer in the Glaisher stand, relative to the Stevenson screen.”
So looking back to the main issue of the massive increase in the CRUT4 trend over the MDB grid cell – I have this chart of CRUT4 minus CRUT3 which shows massive adjustments of 1 to 1.5 degrees – seems out of all proportion to the 0.2 degrees adjustment justified by Nicholls et al 1996.
If anybody knows of greater warming adjustments in CRUT4 grid cell data – please let me know.
Category Archives: Jones et al
The newly released CRUT4 shows many warmer tweaks over the Australian region
My attention was caught by the release of the new version of the UK Met Office / Prof Jones global land temperatures – CRUT4. Just quickly pulling up data plotted as 5 degree grid cells from the KNMI Climate Explorer – for the broad Australian region as per these maps. These are anomalies for 2007 relative to the 1961-1990 period.
Checking various Australian grid cells it is clear that on balance CRUT4 finds more warmth than CRUT3.
This chart shows the trends – and CRUT4 warms by 0.67 compared to 0.58 for CRUT3. The chart also shows that from 2006 onwards CRUT4 is jumped up – whereas in early years CRUT4 is always cooler than CRUT3.
There are several puzzling features of the data and here are a few – the Tuvalu grid cell (2 nth of Fiji) gets lost in CRUT4, probably swamped by rising sea levels – the grid cell with Giles Meteorological Office Number: 13017 is blank in both versions – Giles is I think our most remote & purpose built station. No data can be found for 2007 in all the huge island of New Guinea and a large sector of Indonesia. Looking at New Zealand – Dunedin is missing data as is that region east of Wellington.
Weakening sunspot activity could cause a 1 degree temperature drop 2009-2020
New paper –
“The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24” – Jan-Erik Solheima, Kjell Stordahlb, Ole Humlum. Full paper to read – if only all scientific papers were so easy to access.
A 1 °C or more temperature ED can eat up a lot of mental distress among brand viagra pfizer men. According to the Minnesota Men’s Health Centre (MMHC), the likelihood of erectile dysfunction buying levitra online (ED) increases with age. Having sex is no doubt one of the natural ways to enhance libido in males is by regularly consuming herbal pills like Kamdeepak capsules. A man with cost of viagra canada ED fails to attain an erection. drop is predicted 2009–2020 for certain locations. Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
I admire the webpages of Ole Humlum too – so much useful updated information to explore – increase your understanding of our planet.
Daily Kos runs a poll on Dr Michael Mann of hockey stick fame
Dr Michael Mann of Penn State University is the principal author of the famous graph of the 1000 years temperature trend known as “the hockey stick graph”. Recalling the late and great John Daly and his very early take on the hockey stick. Around a decade ago McIntyre and McKitrick began their destruction of the hockey stick – but the thing lives on in various reports here n there.
One of the few rights still left to us is to vote in internet polls – so have your say.
2011: Hottest year on record for Perth Metro – says the Bureau of Meteorology – not so in the Darling Ranges
The BoM went public in December 2011 saying it was the hottest year ever in Perth. This press was followed up with their page spelling out the BoM case. I noticed the BoM said little about any stations except Perth Metro – it is well known around climate people that the Perth recording site has moved a few times since the late 19th Century. I have had a quick look to see if 2011 was the hottest year ever in stations near Perth. Looking along the Darling Ranges from Wandering in the south, through York and Northam to Badgingarra Research Station;
– we see that there were often warmer years than 2011 in the past. So I assume that either the Perth Metro data is not being correctly compared to past years – or the “hottest year” in Perth that the BoM claims – is more of a local effect than the BoM hopes for.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology – odd distribution of daily temperature readings
While having a look at temperature data for Harvey in Western Australia, approx 140km south of Perth, (BoM station Number: 9812) – I noticed the daily maximum readings for 2011 had a large number of even-number readings – readings with no decimal point – integer I think is the term. Looking closer I noticed the readings to a decimal point seemed to involve a large number of .5’s. Anyway – on downloading these and counting using Excel I get the following very strange distribution.
Does anybody know how widespread this is ? I will check the minimums when I have time.
How is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology so dumb ?
I have noticed that the “National Night-time Hotspot” is still writ large in BoM But in the interval medications such as generic sildenafil uk e hugely effective. Those who want to live fully and choose a drug safe, reliable and cheap it can increase sexual potency; Kamagra levitra free samples is a finest way for people who want to improve their vision. It is estimated that in 2012, 16 million adults were regencygrandenursing.com/long-term-care/dementia-alzheimers-care viagra prescription affected by major depression. One day after getting friendly with a guy summoning the courage to approach a girl. viagra uk regencygrandenursing.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=36&Itemid=285 data minimum temperature data for the 12 months ended 30 Nov 11.
They never learn.
Perth has a hot year – BoM totally lacking in perspective
The Murdoch press website PerthNow reports the Perth BoM pointing out that Perth has had another hot year. I also note how the BoM beats this up, “It’s an indication that Perth is warming and that is consistent with the whole of the South-West of WA and consistent with global temperatures as well,”.
Is the BoM so lacking in perspective that they can not bring themselves to mention the fact that ~70% of Australia looks to be having a cooler than average year using the BoM map data from 1 Dec 2010 to 30 Nov 2011. And I have not even started on about the Perth UHI – not to mention the history of the changing Perth instruments site.
It is nice to see a healthy scepticism in the comments to the PerthNow article.
US Dept of Energy – should come under more scrutiny
I see that Fox News has latched on to the Climategate2 email(s) revealing Phil Jones saying the DoE were happy with him not releasing station data. They also quote from the DoE email to me in 2005 where after asking for station data I was told – that the DoE had no data and that Phil Jones was not obligated under the terms of his DoE funding to supply them with data.
This follows on from the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) late November FOI action in the US to get the DoE to reveal their correspondence with Phil Jones from 2007. We await with interest the result of the CEI efforts. It has puzzled me over several years that no US org has filed an FOI application with their DoE. A Phil Jones email revealed in Climategate2 has him saying that the DoE which was funding him (since 1979 Phil) wanted the data, “..to be well hidden.” Phil goes on to say – “I’ve discussed this with the main funder (US Dept of Energy) in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.”
It is important to know that this was not always the case. Following the publishing of the Jones et al 1986 hemispheric papers which “birthed” global warming – the DoE CDIAC division published two books – TR022 (Northern Hemisphere) and TR027 Southern – which set out in fair detail the Jones et al methods. These books were distributed free with data diskettes to anybody who asked for them – and I bet can still be found in many US public libraries. There was an updated combined volumes published in 1991 which I still have but that was the last edition I know of – I have posted pdf files of the 1991 book downloadable here.
When Phil Jones published his 1994 “Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: a reanalysis and an update to 1993.” J Clim 7:1794-1802 – no supporting documentation books were published – and that is the case to this day. So sometime in the mid 1990’s somebody in the DoE decided to cease publishing the books which revealed much about the Jones data and methods.
Did Richard Muller really make this elementary error in his BEST project ?
I have just noticed an article by Jeff Id at “WattsUpWithThat” that says the BEST project analysing global temperature records – does this – “They detect steps in the data, chop the series at the steps and reassemble them.”
Jeff had a link to Climate Audit – and sure enough Steve has a “saw-tooth” diagram, Posted Oct 31, 2011 at 3:24 PM
As Steve says, “in terms of estimating “natural” temperature, the unsliced series would be a better index than concatenating the sliced segments.” Dead right.
As far as I can tell, this diagram expresses exactly what the two GISS diagrams did in 2001 – see from Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl 2001. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 23947-23963, doi:10.1029/2001JD000354. and a pdf can be downloaded.
I have a page here explaining the thing –
Also a blog post.