Marinus Link deal reworked to keep undersea power cable project between Victoria, Tasmania alive 3Sep23
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-03/marinus-link-undersea-cable-costs-renegotiated/102808504
Albo tips more Oz tax $'s into Tasmanian "Battery of the Nation" cue laughter – financing the Marinus undersea link to Vic rejigged with Albo paying more reports ABC on Fathers Dayt.co/OIQt1TeXSZ pic.twitter.com/fBU8hxfOR9
— Warwick Hughes (@IPCC_Errs) September 4, 2023
I blogged a month ago “Voice campaign polls tightening says ABC”
www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=7153
and has that ever been borne out yeeha.
Since then National polls have showed gains by those intending to vote NO and recently even NSW polls have indicated a majority for NO.
All this has raised the possibility that the referendums could fail which might contribute to Albo being a one term PM.
New WA Gov. laws around intrusion of Indigenous rights onto your “freehold land” have increasingly raised landholder concerns in that State in recent months since the retirement of the popular Premier McGowan. And of course all Australians should assume that their State or Territory Govs. have similar impositions on freehold property being planned deep in their GreenLeft bureaucracies.
In the last few days polls in WA have indicated an earthquake in voting intentions to the extent that the election of a new LNP State Gov is indicated if an election were held.
Poll shows Libby Mettam’s Liberals hold 54-46 two-party preferred lead over Labor with Roger Cook as Premier 23Jul23
thewest.com.au/news/wa/poll-shows-libby-mettams-liberals-hold-54-46-two-party-preferred-lead-over-labor-with-roger-cook-as-premier-c-11360597
Quote [The WA Liberals would win an election held today, according to remarkable new polling that reveals dramatic upheaval in the State’s political landscape.
Mark McGowan’s shock departure, coupled with deeply unpopular Aboriginal heritage laws — which the government has battled to explain — appear to have critically damaged Labor’s prospects in the two short months since Roger Cook took over as Premier.]
It is a long while yet to the referendum vote and if polling continues to indicate a loss for the Yes Vote then I suppose Albo could call off the referendum and just legislate for a Voice; which I recall he has previously threatened to do. I also expect the AEC to act very biassed in favour of a Yes Vote plus the upcoming Govt legislation on disinformation and misinformation has great potential to be used to attack the No Voters side.
Looking further ahead to the 2025 Federal Election the next two summers are a danger time in terms of power price spikes caused by weather and outages that could pressure Govt. energy policy. All factors that could work against Labor in 2025.
Remember the Sun Cable plan for a giant solar farm in the NT and a submarine cable to Singapore and how in Jan the news was a dispute between Twiggy Forrest and Cannon-Brookes drove the move into Administration.
Sun Cable collapses after dispute between billionaire investors Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes 11Jan2023
www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-11/sun-cable-enters-administration/101845100
(WSH comments) Proposed cable to Singapore running along then crossing one of the great ocean trenches on Planet Earth.
The trench is location of colliding tectonic plates, subduction zone, heightened seismic activity, plus elevated volcanic risk think Krakatoa.
I wonder if behind the scenes efforts are going on to get Fed Govt taxpayer $dollars to boost the loony-toon scheme?
Even the comparatively tiny Basslink cable has been a financial disaster for Tassie taxpayers and TasHydro.
I remember a prescient press article by Terry McCrann which I kept – “The experts lie about renewable energy 28Nov2016” Link might be part paywalled.
Here is a quick quote – [THE first and most important thing to understand about global warming true believers and the pushers of so-called “renewable energy” is that they lie. They lie effortlessly, seamlessly, continuously and without the slightest sense of shame. They lie deliberately and carelessly and casually, and even when they don’t realise they are lying. They lie without the slightest sense of self-awareness and with all the pomposity of stupidity aforethought.]
Fast forward to where we are now with the monthly average AEMO wholesale prices shown in my 2 year chart. The timing of the Federal election on 21st May did not help but Govt has to govern and PM Morrison and his Energy Minister Taylor should have been advised in Jan/Feb that their mantra of “we reduced power prices” was now way out of date as Euro-Russian gas supplies issues + Russian-Ukraine border tensions building could be feeding increases in world gas & coal prices that were influencing AEMO wholesale electricity pricing.
Lets just quickly state a few factual matters that help us understand how we arrived where we are with coal and gas generators experiencing fuel supply issues that if they got worse could cause serious large scale blackouts.
A – Our media is ~80% GreenLeft so renewables issues are usually reported to suit the renewables industry with little critical media input. Just look at the youth of many journos at pressers and no wonder many must be auto-greenleft supporters.
B – Conversely rational news about coal and gas resources needed to fuel ~70% of our electricity generation is hard to find.
What has caused wind generation percentage to plateau for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 in South Australia?
Data from OpenNem using ALL data and calendar Years.
This sort of goes against the impression you get from the blizzard of renewables agit/prop that they can not wait to take over from fossil fuels.
I thought it was time I updated my near decade long time series chart of eastern states average monthly electricity prices from AEMO. I have not been paying much attention to power prices lately but had a general impression Govt. was gloating that prices were low. I have annotated my 9.2 year chart with data added to 15Mar22 For full size chart.
My impression from TV news was that the Fed Govt. was pleased prices were still low. This impression is confirmed by the latest media from Energy Minister Angus Taylor which relies on an ACCC report to say “The ACCC’s latest report shows electricity costs for households are now at their lowest levels in eight years.” Prices have firmed since the ACCC report “Household electricity bills increased in 2020 but are now expected to fall 24June 2021” I wonder if the economy is improving and increasing power demand after the worst of the Covid power demand depression. Time will tell.
ABC reports Ballarat Labor MP Catherine King calls for rethink of Western Victoria Transmission Network Project – can only up power bill costs or increase transmission losses. More signs we are “flying blind” hoping unproven wind/solar/pumped hydro renewables will replace coal & gas in the quest to go emissions neutral by 2050 or 2030 or whenever.
Marinus is the glam name given to the proposed 2nd Bass St undersea electricity cable between Tasmania & Victoria with a total capacity of 1500MW. I see they propose two stages of 750MW and note the existing Basslink now near 20 years old is rated at 500MW. The well informed Tasmanian blog Tasfintalk is critical of Marinus and asks a great question – Who’s picking up the tab for Marinus? – and refers to “Father Christmas” as a possible candidate to pay the Lions Share of the no doubt horrendous cost of Marinus. Tasfintalk mentions the existing undersea cable Basslink and I have commented previously on Basslink.
As my headline indicates Australia only has one Father Christmas for now and that is our PM Scott Morrison who did partially annoint the Marinus project in Feb2019.
The Tasfintalk article makes a good case of various points for Australian(and Tasmanian)taxpayers to be kept well clear of the risky Marinus project.
Marinus is an addon to the 2018 Battery of the Nation pumped hydro concept that Tassie Hydro cobbled together after PM Turnbull launched Snowy 2.0. I have also blogged on the over-hyped Battery of the Nation project.
To see these Tasmanian Hydro schemes in better perspective it is important to realize the annual scale of the NEM in 2019 was 205,000GWh (Covid has changed NEM usage and prices post 2019). OpenNem shows the 5 years 2015 to 2019 averaged 204,733GWh demand. Alongside that the Tasmanian imports for those 5 years were 1,173GWh or 0.57% and exports were 1,022GWh or 0.5% of NEM demand. Compared to the scale of the mainland NEM Tasmanian Hydro is a very minor player and the Federal Gov should leave Battery of the Nation and Marinus to be funded by Tasmania or non-Govt companies. 
It is interesting to look at the chart of Tassie Hydro storage levels from data published weekly. For larger chart.
Basslink failed 21Dec2015 and was not repaired until June2016 and Tasmania was greatly assisted by all time record cool season rain in 2016. This caused their dam levels to recover much more rapidly than if 2016 had only see average rain.
However as the chart shows storages have been in a below average zone around 40% to the present day. So the history is not shouting that Tasmania has for example “surplus dam storages that are spilling to waste”.
While poking around on my HDD from a decade ago I came across this RENNIXX index.
So despite decades of countless $Billions of subsidies flowing into renewables – if the RENNIXX index was adjusted for inflation it would show a negative result since 2003-4. 
Tracing a timeline of announcements by Minister Angus Taylor before and after the Federal Budget reveals a fascinating coincidence of events which exactly supported the Gov case that the Kurri Kurri 660MW gas generation would be needed to beef up dispatchable generation when Liddell is closed. Of course the renewables industry spruikers and anti-fossil fuel interests have pilloried the Kurri Kurri gas plant widely. But the Minister (and his staffers and everybody else) seem oblivious that daily events with impeccable timing have been exactly demonstrating the case for Kurri Kurri. Enjoy the Timeline.
[1] Advancing Australia’s gas-fired recovery 7May21 no mention Kurri Kurri
[2] Investing in reliable affordable energy and reducing emissions to secure Australia’s recovery 11May21 Day of the Budget no mention here of Kurri Kurri
[3] ABC reports the day after Fed Budget – Here’s how the Hunter region fared in the 2021 budget 12May21 Despite the government’s plan to build a $600m dollar gas plant at Kurri Kurri at the taxpayer’s expense, no money was specifically allocated in the budget.
[4] Back to the Ministers media releases. Wholesale electricity prices at nine-year low 17May21 (Prob. due Covid disaster) Hey Minister on that VERY DAY NSW and other State prices are exploding due to a wind drought. OpenNem – 19 May screen save Open Nem
[5] Protecting families and businesses from higher energy prices 19May21 Mentions Kurri Kurri to be built by Snowy Hydro – still no recognition of AEMO daily average prices exploding due the wind drought in NSW and various other States. AEMO spreadsheet from 22May see below. Larger spreadsheet
[6] Snowy Hydro page on Hunter Power Project at Kurri Kurri
