Category Archives: Solar

Big decline in sun spot numbers for September 2013

Adds to likelihood that the solar max for cycle 24 has passed.
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SWO data –
RI data –

Big pullback in sunspot numbers for June – nice “rabbit ears”

That “second max” peak did not last long.
Both SWO and RI indices record a solid pullback.

My page a month ago. From here it looks like a slide towards the next solar minimum – NASA/NOAA say in this chart it will not be before ~2020.
An earlier minimum would not amaze me.

RI sunspot numbers just out for May – NASA/NOAA SWO number has been increasing more than Belgian RI count over April May

Confirming the “rabbit ears” shape for Solar Cycle 24. Interesting that the SWO minus RI difference is now 46.8 whereas at the peak of the first “rabbit ear” in Nov 2011 SWO minus RI was only 36.4.

RI sunspot numbers just out for April – NASA/NOAA SWO number confirms the “rabbit ears”

There have been reports on increased sunspot activity in April and the Cycle 24 peak has been widely predicted to be in the next few months.
The RI number just out from Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium – Royal Observatory of Belgium is a tad below what I was expecting.

The chart has both April updates now. – The SWO SS# is 112.8 for April.
There is an issue that with modern technology we are counting smaller and smaller sunspots than was possible hundreds of years ago. So the sunspot time series are probably not homogenous. A reader has sent in this YouTube clip which explains some of the issues for those not up to speed with solar science.

Reminder of the wild prediction NASA made in 2006 about the current Solar Cycle 24

A reader sent me this priceless NASA prediction of a “…30% to 50% stronger…” Solar Cycle 24. A timely reminder of how wrong these highly paid experts and huge taxpayer funded organizations can be. Somebody might have a URL to a chart showing the several NOAA/NASA failed predictions of the last half decade.
Readers can check my Solar category and you will see posts going back to late 2006 that have stood the test of time.
Readers can plot for themselves on this first chart of sunspot numbers since 1750 – just how wrong NASA were in 2006.

This chart of mine shows latest monthly numbers through February 2013.

Sunspot numbers now updated through 2012 – has cycle 24 solar max passed ?

Experienced solar observers have been predicting the solar max for Cycle 24 will be around May this year.

That may turn out what happens and we have a “rabbit ears” pattern formed. Time will tell but just now who would bet on it ?
My earlier posts on Cycle 24 which extend back to late 2006.

Anybody seen the IPCC on the road to Damascus ?

Anthony Watts has the story that the latest IPCC Second Order Draft of AR5 (the next IPCC report), Working Group 1 (“The Scientific Basis”) acknowledges strong evidence for solar forcing beyond total solar irradiance (TSI)
This quote from AR5 – “The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.”
The AR5 draft is being leaked here.
Maybe the IPCC might cotton on to the additional reality that our current very weak solar cycle 24 is not exactly portending warmer times.

Australian Federal Govt wakes up to scale of solar electricity scheme waste

I bet the numbers behind this debacle are horrendous – to get the GreenLabor Govt to act this fast. I see Minister Combet claims – “The overall reduction in 2013 electricity bills is estimated to be in the order of $80 million to $100 million.” So assume 5 million households – only $20 per bill.
What a joke – the damage to our hip pockets from a decade of mad Green electricity schemes is way worse than that. Voters have to vote GreenLabor out then look for a double dissolution to clean out the Senate and campaign for a major slash & burn of all wasteful Green schemes damaging our electricity grid. Nothing less will have a hope of stabilizing electricity bills.

USA and European solar research groups differ over whether sunspots increased or decreased in April

Just noticed that the SWO sunspot number published by NOAA increased for April while the RI number published by the ROYAL OBSERVATORY OF BELGIUM decreased.

Just eyeballing the graph it looks to be a significant difference of opinion.
I notice the NOAA show the 10.7cm flux decreased too – which tends to go with a decrease in sunspots. Link Most of it is performed under local anesthetic, and usually, the procedure only takes approx. 15 minutes. overnight delivery viagra Just do some research and find the best medicine. Suffering from impotency can be an mouthsofthesouth.com discount viagra emotionally stressful situation. A healthy libido doesn’t have to disappear as you get older. to my earlier posts – there is a chain back to Dec 2006 when I first posted on diverging predictions for solar cycle 24. Then in March 2007 I posted David Archibald’s provocative article The Past and Future of Climate – where David correctly predicted a long solar minimum between cycles 23 & 24 and a weak cycle 24.