All posts by Warwick Hughes

Atmospheric science, IPCC, News and Views

Sensational statements by Dr Kevin Trenberth, IPCC supporter

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Dr Trenberth says,

“In fact there are no predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been. The IPCC instead proffers “what if” projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.”

There are an awful lot of policy makers and others driven by the the content of the Al Gore movie and the general blizzard of scary predictions of the future pumped out by the media, that are sure acting as though they believe the IPCC makes predictions; and good, believable predictions too.

For the full statement by Dr Trenberth and many comments, go to the Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog.

Atmospheric science, IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Review comments on papers by the “great and the good”

5 Comments

A catch-all post for comments on my various reviews on significant pro IPCC climate papers.

Dr Rolf Philipona has kindly replied to my comments on his 2005 paper. I intend to present more data for various parameters in the weeks ahead.

Just for now though I want to restate that the Greenhouse Effect has to act in the lower atmosphere and then some of that heat is re-radiated to the surface. See basic descriptions on this NOAA site.

Hence my comment that I feel it is odd to ignore lower troposphere trends, because that is where AGW has first to take place.

IPCC Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is driven by increases in trace gases carbon dioxide, methane etc plus contentious postulated positive feedbacks from water vapour which as many authorities state is by far the most abundant greenhouse gas.

To wrap up for now, just a few very general points. Readers who follow weather forecasts and associated satellite imagery do not need me to point out that the lower atmosphere is characterized by constant large scale movement, lateral and vertical and circulation of air masses on hemispheric scales. Dr Philipona has alluded to looking to understand European warming to some extent outside the influence of the NAO and other people may comment on that.

Then there are issues of truly colossal scale heat transport such as the ever present Gulfstream which prevents the European climate from being significantly more frigid.

I have trouble imagining that Dr Philipona’s “line to the sky” radiation measurements from his Alpine site, however beautifully expressed in mathematics, can explain European warming in the face of these other confounding weather and climate factors.

IPCC, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings

2 Comments

Philip B commented on “Climate predictions “right only half the time””

Warwick you wrote:

Since the nighttime temperatures are rising three times as fast as the daytime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993), it implies a non-climatic signal in the nighttime data equal to about one half of the total warming. It implies the reported global warming of 0.6 C in the twentieth century should be reduced to about 0.3 C.

Have you seen the analyses of Australia temperature data at Gust Of Hot Air?

It shows that rising minimum temperatures are giving a false impression of rising nighttime temperatures, which are rising much less than the minimum, in a number cases there is no rise at all even though the minimum is rising.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that rising minimum temperatures reflect increased daytime warming and not increasing nighttime temperatures. As well as that increasing minimum and maximum temperatures are showing more heat gain to the system than there is.

After replying, I thought we needed a new thread

You had me searching for that quote Philip. It is on a page written by Dr Doug Hoyt, just above his references.

I agree with his thrust there as I have thought for years now that IPCC supportive scientists have attributed DTR closure to a greenhouse signal when in fact it is exactly a UHI signal – which they always manage to either ignore, trivialise or minimise in some way.
Continue reading Daily temperature range (DTR), max minus min, some ramblings →

News and Views, NZ Climate Science Coalition

Climate predictions “right only half the time”

7 Comments

From: Terry Dunleavy [terry.dunleavy@nzclimatescience.org.nz]

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

Media release (immediate) 7 June 2007

World climate predictors right only half the time

“The open admission by a climate scientist of the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dr Jim Renwick, that his organisation achieves only 50 per cent accuracy in its climate forecasts, and that this is as good as any other forecaster around the world, should be a wake-up call for world political leaders,” said Rear Admiral Jack Welch, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

Yesterday the coalition published an analysis of seasonal climate predictions by NIWA over the past five years which found that the overall accuracy of the predictions was just 48 per cent.

Defending the Niwa record, Dr Renwick said his organisation was doing as well as any other weather forecaster around the world. He was quoted by the country’s leading newspaper, the New Zealand Herald as saying: “Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.” Later on New Zealand radio, Dr Renwick said: “The weather is not predictable beyond a week or two.”
Continue reading Climate predictions “right only half the time” →

Jones et al, News and Views, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Weather station urban heating realities

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Anthony Watts of northern California has just posted some very informative photographs of weather recording stations in his region north of San Francisco showing the temperature sensors placed near local heat sources. (ClimateAudit has a new post too introducing Anthony’s work.)

In 2001 I put up a page on what the various temperature data told for the Los Angeles grid cell.

More recently a paper in 2005 found that both the LA grid cell (30-35N, 115-120W) and San Francisco grid cell (35-40N, 120-125W) where Anthony’s stations locate, both have greatly varying trends 1976-2003 according to whether you believe Jones et al/CRU data or the GHCN data. See my post Is this 2005 paper by leading IPCC climate scientists, deceptive ? which links to my new map showing that in 57% of global grid boxes, CRU and GHCN vary by more than 1 degree per century.
Continue reading Weather station urban heating realities →

News and Views, Water

Transporting Kimberley water to Australian capitals by tanker

6 Comments

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I looked for cost estimates to build these million ton supertankers but could not see anything.

IPCC, Jones et al, Surface Record, Urban Heat Islands

Disparity in tropical T datsets, 20 North to 20 South

1 Comment

A reader has emailed to say,

“Virtually all GCMs result in the temperature of the troposphere at the
tropics increasing at about 1.3x that of the increase in the surface temperature. But all observations show that troposphere temp in the tropics is increasing at 1/2 to 1/3 that rate. Isn’t that proof that the greenhouse effect can not be causing an increase in surface temperature? How can something gaining less heat(trop.), heat something gaining more heat(surface)?

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The graphic below shows the differences between MSU and the Hadley Centre and GHCN/CAMS data.
T trends in the tropics

IPCC, News and Views, Water

West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall

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These quotes are from Hansard for Question time in the WA Legislative Assembly, Thursday 17 May 2007. Note, Hansard is the Australian Parliamentary transcripts, or diary.

Mr A.J. CARPENTER (WA Premier): “..It has stopped raining in the south west of Western Australia. The rain no longer falls from the sky in sufficient quantities to fill the dams to fill the pipes to fill the cups for people to drink…”

The Premier was answering a question which included the Agritech proposal to produce water for Perth from Wellington Dam, full text is reproduced below.

Data for this graphic is from the WA Govt WaterCorp website.
Wellington Dam storage levels

NOTE: Wellington Dam (just west of Collie in SW WA) overflowed in 2005 and near overflowed in 2006, despite the low rainfall that year. In most years WaterCorp releases several tens of GL of water from the foot of the dam to reduce salinity. This water now wasted and other available water would be the basis for Agritech’s proposal to supply water to Perth see: www.agritechsmartwater.com.au/

To see several graphics putting SW WA rainfall in perspective with catchment flows and Govt policy, click here.
Continue reading West Australian Premier talks utter nonsense about rainfall →

Atmospheric science, News and Views, Water

BoM rain predictions “totally useless”

3 Comments

We are talking here about the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) “National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook”. The BoM produces these predictive maps every month looking ahead for the next three months. I have for some years been critical that these Outlook maps are too often grossly wrong when compared to the rain anomaly maps National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook produced by the BoM, 100 days or more later of course.
See my pages where Outlook maps are juxtaposed with real world rain anomalies. The quote of “totally useless” in my post headline comes from an article on ABC Online news, ABC being our Govt. owned Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Continue reading BoM rain predictions “totally useless” →