Feudal
water trading plan will create cartels by Bruce Haigh
Friday 2 May on ABC News online, some fascinating comments.
Bruce Haigh is a retired
Diplomat who now farms near Mudgee; he irrigates grapes and olives.
Bruce writes and comments on domestic and international affairs; he
regularly presents at conferences, seminars and training sessions in
relation to water issues and strategic planning.
There are many very interesting articles covering a wide range of
subjects to be found on Bruce's website, and at http://www.newmatilda.com/
s
where more of Bruce's articles are
posted.
Bruce also had a similar article in the Canberra times Water
trading plan 'feudal' Monday 28 April
I emailed Bruce to draw his attention to the rainfall history of
his region Trangie, Mudgee, Bathurst, which
shows the recent dry period is no worse than previous cyclic dry
periods. My email sequence is copied below, newest on top.
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Dear Bruce, emailed Saturday 3 May
You say, [I think it is important to note where the rain falls,
the MDB looks a little low on water at the moment.] April has been
below average over much of the MDB but so what Bruce ?
Rain does not fall evenly in time or space. Just look at these BoM
Australian maps of rain deciles, first summer rain (Dec,Jan,Feb) was
pretty good across the MDB.
Dec-Feb rain
http://www.bom.gov.au/web01/ncc/www/rainfall/decile/3month/colour/history/nat/2007120120080229.gif
Apr 08 shows that although much of the MDB still had rain in the BoM
average band, other areas were below average. After a wet summer why
would it not be normal to have some relatively dryer months Bruce.
Nothing unusual at all Bruce.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours&variable=deciles&area=aus&period=1month®ion=aus&time=latest
MDB long term, There is no evidence in these data for "climate change"
altering MDB rain. I see cyclicity with the last few years no worse
than the dry period in the 1940's
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi?variable=rain®ion=mdb&season=0112
I have taken the BoM MDB time series annual data and made a new graphic
with a 5 year average which I always use so comparisons are all on thwe
same basis. The BoM graphics use a much longer period which I find not
as clear.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/mdbrain07.gif
I think these issues are important enough that I have started a web
page.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/haigh.htm
All the best Bruce,
Warwick Hughes
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Bruce replied on 2 May and said,
Thanks. I think it is important to note where the rain falls, the MDB
looks a little low on water at the moment.
Bruce Haigh
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Dear Bruce, Emailed on 1st May 08 with Trangie, Mudgee, Bathurst
graphic attached
Your article "Water trading plan 'feudal'" in Monday's Canberra Times
is thought provoking and I have to say I too have little confidence in
any Fed or States Govts to do what I would consider is the right thing
by all the people re water trading. And I have to say, re most
aspects of Govt water policies as they have evolved post the 1990's.
Your statement "...as we move into climate change..", suggests
you accept CSIRO model predictions re future climate and that has
blighted this entire water / drought issue for nearly a decade now.
Bruce, do you really think there was a period when climate WAS NOT
changing ??
I attach graphics of rainfall history for the district Bathurst -
Mudgee - Trangie and you can see that despite the record low rain in
Mudgee for 2006, 5 year average rainfall was lower in
several past periods when compared to recent years for all three
places.
So Bruce, I think you could brush up on your rainfall history data.
Also see a long term trend at Canberra on my Blog at
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=156
I have just posted an Open letter to Minister Penny Wong re her Press
Release of earlier in the week.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=166
Anyway,
All the best to you Bruce,
Warwick Hughes
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